The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday 28 October, but it did so by a 10–2 vote: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both wanted a quarter-point increase (Yahoo Finance, 28 October). At about 07:04 UTC on Thursday 29 October, bitcoin was trading at $79,858 on Coinbase, down 1.7% from Wednesday’s close of $81,249 and back under the $80,000 line it had held for two days. The next catalysts are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET today: September PCE inflation and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP (Bureau of Economic Analysis schedule).
This is a market report, not investment advice: it describes published data and does not predict where bitcoin goes next.
What the Fed actually changed
The hold itself was expected: CME FedWatch had put the odds of no change at roughly 90% before the meeting, according to Yahoo Finance’s live coverage. The details were not. The vote moved from 12–0 in September, when the Fed raised rates for the first time in more than three years, to 10–2 this time. The statement now describes economic activity as expanding at a “strong” pace, up from “solid”, and it dropped the sentence saying the September policy action would support a return to 2% inflation; in its place it says that more information will help the Committee decide its next step (Yahoo Finance; CryptoTicker, 29 October). Both sources note that the statement gives no date or condition for a cut.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation is improving but prices are still rising too fast, according to Coingabbar’s 29 October report. Consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September (Yahoo Finance), which is why the two dissenters wanted to move again. For context on how traders read those odds, see our guide to reading the Fed hike probability.
The December hike is the real market
| Date | CME FedWatch: 25bp hike at 8–9 Dec meeting | Hold at 3.75%–4% |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep | 36.3% | 5.0% |
| 21 Oct | 76.1% | 10.3% |
| 27 Oct | 78.3% | 16.2% |
| 29 Oct (morning) | 78.4% | 21.6% |
Source: CME FedWatch probabilities as tabulated by Coingabbar on 29 October. The rest of each row sits in a higher-rate bucket (for example 5.5% on a 4.25%–4.50% outcome on 27 October). Yahoo Finance cited about 84% for a December hike before Wednesday’s decision; the two readings are from different times and sources.
In plain terms: the hold changed little, because the market already expects the Fed to raise rates again in December. The hike odds were 36% a month ago. ING still expects a December hike, per Coingabbar. That is why today’s inflation print matters more than Wednesday’s decision.
Why bitcoin slipped under $80,000
Bitcoin barely reacted on Wednesday. It briefly touched $81,185 after the release and eased to near $80,950 on Binance, per TradingView data quoted by Yahoo Finance; Coinbase’s UTC-day candle closed at $81,249, up 0.56% from Tuesday. The slide came in Thursday’s Asian session. KuCoin and Coingabbar link it to Samsung Electronics: its chip unit reported operating profit of 106.5 trillion won against an analyst expectation of 108.5 trillion won, and shares fell more than 5%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped more than 2% and Nasdaq futures fell about 1.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 5% (Coingabbar). Bitcoin has traded with US tech more than usual lately, a pattern we measured in our correlation study.
Video: Crypto Banter’s live coverage of the Fed decision, streamed 28 October 2026. Third-party commentary; we have not checked every claim made in it.
How big was the move?
| Coinbase, UTC day | Open | High | Low | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 27 Oct | 80,008.79 | 81,182.00 | 79,365.93 | 80,799.51 |
| Wed 28 Oct (Fed day) | 80,799.50 | 81,715.01 | 80,270.68 | 81,249.31 |
| Thu 29 Oct (open, 07:04 UTC) | 81,249.32 | 81,289.72 | 79,586.17 | 79,857.60 |
A 1.7% decline in a few hours is an ordinary move for bitcoin, which has averaged about 1.8% absolute daily change since 2022 in our data (see our range study). Liquidation figures differ by source and time window: KuCoin reported $356 million of crypto futures liquidations in 24 hours, $205 million of them longs, with $94 million in bitcoin futures; Coingabbar showed $94.6 million in total, $52.1 million long. Neither names its data provider with certainty, so treat both as rough.
What to watch at 8:30 a.m. ET
- September PCE: the Cleveland Fed nowcast was 0.47% for headline and 0.28% for core month on month, and August’s core rate was 3.0% from a year earlier (Stock Titan, 28 October). To meet the Fed’s own 3.4% core forecast for 2026, core PCE would need to average about 0.33% a month from September to December (same source; arithmetic, not a forecast). Our PCE guide sets out the five checks.
- Q3 GDP: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow stood at 3.3% annualised on 28 October and the New York Fed’s nowcast at 2.7% on 23 October, against 2.2% for the second quarter (Stock Titan). Strong growth supports the hawkish reading of Wednesday’s statement.
- Earnings tonight: Amazon and Intel report after the close (Motley Fool, 28 October). Alphabet, Microsoft and ServiceNow reported on Wednesday; we have not assessed those results here.
Video: Coin Bureau’s 28 October discussion of the $80,000–$85,000 range. Third-party commentary.
For readers following the Fed week, yesterday’s study of expiry Fridays and our earlier work on Fed decision days give the base rates; tomorrow’s Deribit options expiry is covered in Guide #68.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, Fed holds rates; Yahoo Finance live coverage; CryptoTicker; Motley Fool market report; Coingabbar; KuCoin News; BEA release schedule; Stock Titan PCE preview; Stock Titan GDP preview.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:05 UTC on Thursday 29 October 2026; the 29 October candle is still open at that time, so any closing figure quoted is the 28 October close (81,249.31) unless stated. Other third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Fed, FedWatch and statement details come from the cited Yahoo Finance, CryptoTicker and Coingabbar reports; we did not read the Fed’s statement directly.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.