Two things will set the tone for markets today. At 2:00 p.m. New York time (18:00 UTC) the Federal Reserve announces its decision, with a news conference half an hour later. And a day earlier, Meta Platforms priced the first $37.5 billion of what it says could become a $97.5 billion stock-sale plan to pay for artificial-intelligence spending, the largest equity raise in the company’s history (American Bazaar and Stock Titan, 27 October). Wall Street shrugged: the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2% on Tuesday to 26,477.81, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,722.60 and the Dow was flat at 52,377.57 (TokenPost, 27 October). Bitcoin closed Tuesday at $80,799.51 on Coinbase, up 0.99%, and traded at $80,783 at 07:04 UTC this morning.
Informational only. This is not investment advice.
What Meta actually priced
Meta announced the offering on Monday 26 October. According to the prospectus-based breakdown published by Stock Titan, the priced part is $37.5 billion, split between common stock and a mandatory convertible preferred. A further, unsigned “at-the-market” programme of up to $60 billion in new non-voting Class C shares would start in early 2027. Add the two and you reach the $97.5 billion headline; the day before, outlets had reported $95 billion, so the plan was revised upward by $2.5 billion (American Bazaar).
| Piece | Size | Terms as reported | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class A common stock | $25.0 billion | 40 million shares at $625, sold through a forward sale that settles by 19 November 2027 | Stock Titan |
| Mandatory convertible preferred | $12.5 billion | 250 million depositary shares at $50, 6.50% a year, converting around August 2029 | Stock Titan; American Bazaar |
| Bank over-allotment options | About $5.6 billion | 30-day options on common and preferred | Stock Titan |
| At-the-market programme | Up to $60 billion | Non-voting Class C shares, early 2027; no agreement signed yet | Stock Titan; American Bazaar |
| Strategic investors | $3 billion Nvidia, $1 billion AMD | Part of the offering, alongside expanded chip purchases | American Bazaar |
| Expected closing of priced deals | 29 October 2026 | — | Stock Titan |
Two details do not line up across sources and we flag them rather than choose. American Bazaar says Nvidia, AMD and Micron expressed non-binding interest in buying up to $5 billion of Class A shares; Stock Titan and TIKR name Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom instead. Several percentages in the Stock Titan piece, such as about 5.8% dilution, are that site’s own arithmetic, not company disclosures, so we do not rely on them. We could not retrieve CNBC’s original report, and we did not find a verified Tuesday closing price for Meta; American Bazaar had the stock down about 1.4% in morning trading and TIKR about 2% during the day. Meta closed Monday at $630.56, just above the $625 deal price (Stock Titan).
Why Meta needs the money
The financing follows a quarter in which spending outran the cash coming in. Third-quarter capital expenditure was $34.91 billion against operating cash flow of $32.79 billion, and TIKR reports free cash flow of negative $2.12 billion, the first negative quarter in more than a decade. Full-year 2026 capex guidance is $135–145 billion. Meta bought back no stock from January to September 2026, against $26.25 billion in the same period of 2025, and had $82.45 billion of cash and securities against $84.0 billion of bonds outstanding at 30 September (Stock Titan, citing the company’s filings). Alphabet did the same in June, upsizing an equity raise to $84.75 billion (Stock Titan; Dow Jones/FT reported about $85 billion at the time). The pattern is the point: the largest technology companies are now funding AI from the stock market, not just from cash and bonds.
Video: Bloomberg’s 26 October stock-movers segment on the offering, from before the figure was raised to $97.5 billion. Third-party commentary, not our analysis.
The Bitcoin angle: a very large supply of new equity, and a very small flow into bitcoin ETFs
Bitcoin readers have a reason to care that is more concrete than “risk appetite.” Meta alone has put $37.5 billion of new shares and convertible paper in front of investors in a single day, with up to $60 billion more to follow. Over the same October, US spot bitcoin ETFs have taken in a net negative $202.1 million across 18 trading sessions through 26 October (TFTC’s daily table). Our arithmetic: $37.5 billion is roughly 185 times that net outflow. Farside’s table shows a preliminary +$110.3 million for Monday 26 October, all in BlackRock’s IBIT, and no print yet for Tuesday; the identical 110.3 figure appears as the IBIT outflow on Friday 23 October, which may be coincidence or a data quirk, so treat Monday as provisional (Farside, TFTC, retrieved 28 October).
| Measure | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta priced equity and preferred | $37.5 billion | One day (26 Oct) | Stock Titan |
| Meta plan including at-the-market | Up to $97.5 billion | Through 2027 | Stock Titan; American Bazaar |
| Alphabet equity raise | $84.75 billion | June 2026 | Stock Titan |
| US spot bitcoin ETF net flow | −$202.1 million | 1–26 October (18 sessions) | TFTC |
| Largest ETF outflow day this month | −$635.5 million (22 Oct) | One day | TFTC; Farside |
This is a comparison of scale, not a claim of cause. Different investors buy bitcoin ETFs and new Meta shares, and nothing in the data shows that money left one to buy the other. What it does show is where the marginal institutional dollar is being asked to go this autumn. When our 30-day Nasdaq correlation reached 0.60 last week (see the analysis), the working assumption that bitcoin trades with the AI-heavy index looked intact; a flood of AI equity supply is one more reason that link matters. The desk’s 25 October report covered the Meta cash-flow numbers that led to this raise.
Chart: bitcoin over one month, TradingView widget (live data).
Fed day: the setup
The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September, a unanimous decision, and the September minutes said another increase “would likely be appropriate by year end” (CryptoTicker, 24 October). Pricing going in is for a hold: CryptoTicker, citing Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate, had about a 93% chance of no change and roughly 73% for a hike by December, while Yahoo Finance’s live blog put the CME FedWatch chance of an October hike near 10% and described economists as expecting a “hawkish pause” (Yahoo Finance, 27 October). There are no new rate projections at this meeting, and the next one is 8–9 December (CryptoTicker). So the tone of the statement and the press conference carry the weight. Our guide to reading rate-hike probabilities explains the six checks, and our study of the day before the Fed found no reliable edge in the pre-decision session.
Video: an independent channel’s 21 October preview of the decision. Opinion, not our analysis.
Bitcoin’s week, close by close
| Date (UTC) | Coinbase close | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 20 Oct | $82,938.26 | +1.35% |
| Wed 21 Oct | $84,024.67 | +1.31% |
| Thu 22 Oct | $81,307.16 | −3.23% |
| Fri 23 Oct | $81,078.04 | −0.28% |
| Sat 24 Oct | $80,769.67 | −0.38% |
| Sun 25 Oct | $80,053.16 | −0.89% |
| Mon 26 Oct | $80,008.79 | −0.06% |
| Tue 27 Oct | $80,799.51 | +0.99% |
Moves are computed from the closes shown. Tuesday’s range was $79,365.93 to $81,182.
Elsewhere on Tuesday, oil eased on hopes of Middle East de-escalation, with Brent below $110 a barrel and WTI near $100, and the 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.99% on Yahoo’s ticker snapshot, which carries no timestamp (Yahoo Finance, 27 October). Chip stocks led the rally, and the S&P 500 rose even though most of its members fell (TokenPost).
What to watch next
- Today, 18:00 UTC: the Fed statement; 18:30 UTC press conference. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the US close.
- Thursday 29 October: PCE inflation and GDP, Amazon after the close, and Strategy’s third-quarter results after the close. Meta’s priced deals are due to close the same day.
- Friday 30 October: a large Deribit bitcoin options expiry, put at $11.1 billion by CryptoTicker and $11.69 billion by Decrypt, as cited by PrimeXBT; the two numbers do not reconcile.
- Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections.
If the Fed holds and signals patience, the immediate question for bitcoin is whether the $79,000–80,000 zone that held on 24–27 October (intraday lows between $79,107 and $79,732) survives a heavy week of AI-sector earnings and equity supply. If it hikes, the $75,000–77,000 area that analysts quoted last week comes back into view (Decrypt, via PrimeXBT, 23 October). Neither is a forecast; both are descriptions of the published setup.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:05 UTC on Wednesday 28 October 2026; the 28 October candle is still open at that time, so any closing figure quoted is the 27 October close unless stated. US index, yield and oil figures are the 27 October closes reported by TokenPost and Yahoo Finance as cited. Other third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Bitcoin ETF flows are from TFTC and Farside tables retrieved on 28 October and are preliminary until the next print.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.