The week that matters most for markets in October opens on Monday 26 October with an unusual overlap: the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday 28 October at 2:00 p.m. ET, and Microsoft and Alphabet report results after the close the same day, according to investingLive’s week-ahead note of 23 October. Bitcoin enters it near $80,020 (Coinbase, 07:12 UTC), after a Saturday low of $79,107 and a week that began at $81,838 on Monday 19 October.
Informational only, not investment advice. See the full disclaimer at the end.
The mainstream hook: a Fed decision and $46.6 billion of Microsoft capex on one afternoon
Fed funds futures put the odds of a hold on Wednesday at roughly 90–92% (investingLive, 23 October), while a separate CME FedWatch reading cited by HeyGoTrade on 26 October is about 88%. The harder question is December: investingLive puts the odds of a hike at about 85% and FXEmpire’s futures reading at about 80%. The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September, and there is no new Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, so the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference carry the signal (CryptoTimes, 26 October).
The inflation backdrop explains the pricing. September CPI, released on 14 October, rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% in August, with core up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year (CryptoTimes, 26 October).
Microsoft then reports fiscal first-quarter results after the Fed. CMC Markets’ preview shows consensus earnings of $4.72 a share on revenue of $90.1 billion, and capital spending of $46.6 billion, against $19.4 billion a year earlier. HeyGoTrade’s preview lists Alphabet with an EPS estimate of $3.00 on revenue of $127.9 billion, and puts expected hyperscaler capital spending at about $800 billion this year. Amazon, Intel, Coinbase and Strategy report on Thursday 29 October after the close (investingLive).
Video: a 15 October 2026 discussion of bitcoin’s first test of $80,000 this month. Opinion, not our analysis.
Where bitcoin stands: a quiet drift lower, then a weekend dip
| Date (UTC) | Open | High | Low | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct | 82,006.85 | 83,076.23 | 81,634.43 | 81,837.69 |
| Tue 20 Oct | 81,837.70 | 83,344.25 | 81,080.64 | 82,938.26 |
| Wed 21 Oct | 82,938.26 | 84,856.07 | 82,535.00 | 84,024.67 |
| Thu 22 Oct | 84,024.67 | 84,305.25 | 80,789.61 | 81,307.16 |
| Fri 23 Oct | 81,305.90 | 81,962.00 | 80,401.34 | 81,078.04 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 81,079.63 | 81,106.03 | 79,107.00 | 80,769.67 |
| Sun 25 Oct | 80,769.67 | 80,925.00 | 79,732.29 | 80,053.16 |
| Mon 26 Oct (open) | 80,053.16 | 80,276.92 | 79,255.00 | 80,016.41 at pull |
Source: Coinbase Exchange daily candles pulled by Bitcoin Mastery; the Monday row is incomplete.
From Wednesday’s close of $84,024.67 to Monday morning’s $80,020, bitcoin is down about 4.8%; from the previous Monday’s close it is down about 2.2%. CryptoTimes reports more than $800 million of liquidations, mostly long positions, when bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 on Sunday. Coinbase candles confirm sub-$80,000 prints on both Saturday ($79,107) and Sunday ($79,732), but we have not independently verified the liquidation total or which day it covers; our guide to reading liquidation numbers explains why such headline figures differ by data provider: seven checks before you believe “$1 billion wiped out”.
Spot bitcoin ETFs added to the pressure last week. Farside data reported by Le Coin shows a $635.6 million outflow on Thursday 22 October and $137.9 million on Friday, leaving the week at about +$301.2 million after Monday and Wednesday inflows; the day-by-day detail is in our weekend flows update.
Why this week is different for bitcoin
Three of the data points that have moved bitcoin this month arrive in four days. Wednesday’s Fed decision comes with a hold priced at about nine in ten after September’s hike. Thursday brings September PCE: CMC Markets lists consensus of +0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year for the headline, and +0.3% and 3.1% for core, with preliminary Q3 GDP released the same morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. Our PCE field guide covers how a revision to the BEA’s methodology complicates the comparison. The next CPI report is due on 10 November.
For bitcoin the relevant history is mixed rather than decisive. In our study of 38 FOMC meetings since January 2022, bitcoin averaged +0.49% on decision days with a standard error of 0.51 percentage points, i.e. statistically indistinguishable from zero; the full numbers are in How Does Bitcoin Trade on Fed Decision Days?. And a 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq near 0.60 means that Microsoft’s and Alphabet’s evening reactions could matter as much as the Fed’s afternoon.
Chart: bitcoin over one month, TradingView widget (live data).
What to watch, in order
- Wed 28 Oct, 2:00 p.m. ET: FOMC statement; 2:30 p.m. ET Warsh press conference. Watch the language on further tightening, since a December hike is already largely priced.
- Wed 28 Oct, after the close: Microsoft and Alphabet results, with Microsoft’s capex against the $46.6 billion consensus.
- Thu 29 Oct, 8:30 a.m. ET: September PCE and advance Q3 GDP; then Amazon, Coinbase, Strategy, Intel after the close.
- Levels cited by analysts: $80,000 as support and $81,000–$82,000 as resistance (KuCoin and CryptoTimes, 26 October); these are commentary, not forecasts.
A note on sources: KuCoin’s daily report of 26 October labels the Fed press conference as “Powell” and dates the decision to 29 October; the Fed Chair is Kevin Warsh and the decision is on 28 October per CryptoTimes, CMC Markets and investingLive, so we use those. We also treat the report’s Coinbase earnings date (30 October) as superseded by investingLive’s 29 October.
Bitcoin has now spent roughly two weeks between about $79,000 and $85,000. Whether Wednesday breaks that range is unknowable in advance; what the calendar does guarantee is that the Fed, two mega-cap earnings reports and PCE all land within roughly 28 hours of each other.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.