How Does Bitcoin Trade on Fed Decision Days? Across 38 FOMC Meetings Since January 2022 It Averaged +0.49% on the Day, Statistically Zero — and the Fed-Day Volatility Premium Has Vanished Since Mid-2024, Nine Days Before the 28 October Decision

The Federal Reserve’s next decision is due on Wednesday 28 October 2026, and the question every bitcoin holder asks in the week before is whether Fed day itself is a trading event. We measured it. Across all 38 scheduled FOMC decision days from 26 January 2022 to 16 September 2026, bitcoin’s average move on the day was +0.49% with a standard error of 0.51 percentage points, a median of +0.14%, and 21 up days against 17 down. That is statistically indistinguishable from zero. The more interesting finding is about size, not direction: the extra volatility that Fed days once carried has gone. Since June 2024 the average absolute move on a decision day has been 1.61%, against 1.67% on an ordinary day.

This is a study of past data, not a forecast. Every number below is our own calculation from public prices and the Federal Reserve’s published meeting calendar, and the method and limits are set out at the end.

The setup: a hiking Fed with another hike priced for December

At its 16 September meeting the Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% by a 12–0 vote, its first increase since July 2023, according to J.P. Morgan’s summary. In the same meeting 16 of 18 participants projected at least one more hike in 2026, and the median year-end projection rose to 4.1%. On 16 October, Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next move, telling an IMF audience he does not “prejudge meetings”. FXStreet, citing Deutsche Bank, says October hike pricing has fallen to around 15% from roughly 30%, while CME’s FedWatch tool shows more than a 90% chance of a hike by December; a second FXStreet note puts the December figure at 91.8% and quotes Warsh calling October and December “crystallizing moment” meetings. Our Field Guide #54 explains how to read these probabilities. Bitcoin trades near $82,700 as we publish.

Result 1: no directional edge on Fed day

We took the 38 scheduled decisions listed on the Federal Reserve’s calendar (excluding the single-day notation vote of 22 August 2025, which was not a scheduled meeting decision). For each, we measured bitcoin’s UTC close-to-close return on the decision day, the next day, and the two days together. The Fed normally publishes its statement at 2:00 p.m. New York time, which is 18:00 UTC while US daylight time lasts, so the UTC day contains the reaction.

A mean of +0.49% with a standard error of 0.51 is less than one standard error from zero. The median decision-day move of +0.14% is close to the median for all days. The day after was slightly weaker on average (−0.46%) but its median is flat, and over two days the average is +0.01%. If a pattern exists in the direction of Fed-day moves, a sample of 38 cannot show it.

Result 2: the volatility premium was real in 2022–24 and has gone since

Direction is noisy, but size is easier to measure. Across all 38 days the average absolute move was 2.23%, against 1.80% for all days in the same window, a ratio of 1.24. Thirteen of the 38 decision days moved more than 2.40%, the 75th percentile of all days’ absolute moves; chance alone would give about 9.5, and the probability of 13 or more by chance is roughly 13%. That is suggestive, but it hides a split in time.

In the first half of the sample Fed days were nearly one and a half times as volatile as ordinary days. In the second half they were no more volatile than a normal day. One caution: 37 of the 38 decision days fall on a Wednesday (the exception is Thursday 7 November 2024), and Wednesdays in this window average 2.17% absolute, so against a Wednesday-only baseline the full-sample premium (2.23%) is almost nil. We would not lean on any volatility premium in the current regime.

The yearly pattern tells the same story: 2024 contained the biggest outliers (+9.69% on 20 March and −5.75% on 18 December), while 2025 and 2026 decision days have been quiet. The six 2026 meetings average −0.89% on the day and −1.18% on the following day, with three of the six next days down, including −5.18% after 28 January. Six observations prove little, but they do match the current mood: bitcoin has not treated Fed days as relief events this year.

Result 3: rate hikes were kinder to bitcoin than holds — but the sample is small and old

Because the Fed is in a hiking phase again, we split the 38 meetings by outcome, using the public record: 12 meetings raised rates (March 2022 to July 2023, and September 2026) and 26 did not. This split was chosen after seeing the data, so treat it as a hypothesis rather than a finding.

Hike days averaged +1.49% against +0.03% for non-hike days, a gap of 1.46 points on standard errors of 0.92 and 0.60, which is not statistically significant. Seven of the twelve hikes came in 2022, when bitcoin was in a bear market and the hikes were widely expected, so relief rallies on “less bad than feared” are a more natural reading than any hike effect. The latest hike, on 16 September 2026, saw bitcoin close up 0.71% on the day and 0.33% the next day. Following hikes, the next day averaged −0.81%, with only 5 of 12 up, which again points to noise more than signal.

What this means for 28 October

Three descriptive points follow from the data. First, history does not give a directional rule: up and down outcomes were close to even and the average sits within noise. Second, large moves on Fed day are still possible: 13 of 38 days exceeded 2.40%, so a calm statement is not guaranteed to mean a calm day. Third, the second half of the sample suggests bitcoin has priced Fed days like ordinary days, which means the market’s reaction may depend more on the surprise relative to expectations than on the decision itself. With October hike odds around 15% and a December hike above 90% in FedWatch, as reported by FXStreet, the bigger risk for volatility may be the signal Warsh gives about December rather than the October decision. We also covered the inflation setup in our report on the hot CPI and Field Guide #57.

Method and limits

Prices are Yahoo Finance’s BTC-USD daily closes (UTC), which differ slightly from Coinbase candles; the two disagreed by roughly 0.3 to 0.4 points on some weekly moves in earlier checks, so single-day figures are approximate. Meeting dates come from the Federal Reserve calendar page; hike versus hold classification is ours from the public record. There were 1,725 ordinary days from 26 January 2022 to 16 October 2026. Standard errors assume independent days, which understates uncertainty in a volatile market. Decision-day returns include other news that happened the same day. The hike split and Wednesday baseline were added after the first results, which raises the chance of finding patterns by luck.

Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day or UTC hour) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 06:15 UTC on Monday 19 October 2026; the 19 October candle is still open at that time, so any closing figure quoted is the 18 October close unless stated. Index, stock, VIX, oil and yield figures are Yahoo Finance daily data (US closes of Friday 16 October) or the news sources cited; Asian sessions had not all closed at pull time. Other third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. FOMC-day statistics are our calculations; all returns are close-to-close on UTC days.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.