The Nasdaq Composite ended October 2026 down about 5.3%, from 26,861.06 on 30 September to 25,437.00 on 30 October, its worst month since March 2025 according to Yahoo Finance, after Friday’s biggest one-day drop since June as Intel and Amazon earnings stoked fears about AI spending. Bitcoin fell 7.6% over the same stretch, from 83,553.85 to 77,198.21 (Yahoo Finance closes). The natural next question for anyone who follows both markets is what happens in November. We cannot forecast it, but we can look at what bitcoin did after every comparable month in its history, and then be honest about how little that history proves.
The test
We took Yahoo Finance daily closes for the Nasdaq Composite and for BTC-USD from 17 September 2014, the start of the bitcoin series, to 30 October 2026. A month is measured from the last Nasdaq trading day of the previous month to the last trading day of the month; bitcoin is measured on the same calendar dates, using the UTC-day close. That gives 145 months. We selected every month, other than October 2026 itself, in which the Nasdaq fell 4% or more, found 19, and recorded bitcoin’s move in that same month and in the following month. For comparison we computed the following-month move for all 144 months that have one.
The 19 cases
| Month | Nasdaq Composite | Bitcoin, same month | Bitcoin, next month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | −6.9% | −19.2% | +2.6% |
| Jan 2016 | −7.9% | −11.9% | +15.3% |
| Oct 2018 | −9.2% | −4.9% | −36.4% |
| Dec 2018 | −9.5% | −6.8% | −7.6% |
| May 2019 | −7.9% | +60.2% | +44.7% |
| Feb 2020 | −6.4% | −7.3% | −25.8% |
| Mar 2020 | −10.1% | −25.8% | +34.5% |
| Sep 2020 | −5.2% | −7.7% | +25.6% |
| Sep 2021 | −5.3% | −7.2% | +42.1% |
| Jan 2022 | −9.0% | −16.9% | +12.2% |
| Apr 2022 | −13.3% | −15.2% | −17.7% |
| Jun 2022 | −8.7% | −37.8% | +20.3% |
| Aug 2022 | −4.6% | −15.8% | −3.1% |
| Sep 2022 | −10.5% | −3.1% | +5.5% |
| Dec 2022 | −8.7% | −3.3% | +39.4% |
| Sep 2023 | −5.8% | +3.8% | +28.8% |
| Apr 2024 | −4.4% | −14.3% | +11.3% |
| Mar 2025 | −8.2% | −2.2% | +14.1% |
| Mar 2026 | −4.8% | +3.6% | +11.8% |
Source: our calculation from Yahoo Finance daily closes. Months are ranked chronologically; every row is a month in which the Nasdaq fell 4% or more.
What the table says
In the same month, bitcoin fell in 16 of the 19 cases, with a mean of −6.9% and a median of −7.3%. The exceptions were May 2019 (+60.2%), September 2023 (+3.8%) and March 2026 (+3.6%). October 2026’s −7.6% sits right on top of the typical outcome, and the Nasdaq’s −5.3% was milder than 15 of the 19 earlier months. The relationship is real but loose: across all 145 months the correlation between the two monthly returns is 0.35.
In the next month, bitcoin rose in 14 of 19 cases (74%), with a mean of +11.5% and a median of +12.2%. Across all 144 months with a following month, bitcoin rose 82 times (57%), with a mean of +5.9% and a median of +3.7%. Widening the filter to Nasdaq months of −3% or worse gives 24 cases, an average next-month move of +12.0% and 18 gains. Taken at face value, that is a rebound pattern: a down month for the Nasdaq has tended to be followed by a better-than-usual month for bitcoin.
Why we would not lean on it
First, the sample is small and uneven. Nineteen observations is 19, and six of them are months in 2022 that sit inside one long bear market. When we asked how often a random draw of 19 next-month returns from the 144 would average as high as +11.5%, the answer was about 11% of the time, above the 5% bar most researchers use for “unlikely to be chance”. The edge is large in size and unproven in statistical terms.
Second, the outcomes are bimodal. The next month was −36.4% after October 2018, −25.8% after February 2020 and −17.7% after April 2022, and it was +44.7% after May 2019, +42.1% after September 2021 and +39.4% after December 2022. A mean of +11.5% describes none of those individual months well.
Third, and most important for today, the weak cases cluster in a specific macro setting. The eight months in 2018 and 2022, years when the Federal Reserve was raising rates, averaged a next-month move of only +1.6% (median +1.2%, four up and four down). The other eleven months averaged +18.7% (median +15.3%, ten up and one down). Today’s backdrop looks more like the first group than the second on one measure: the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on 28 October with two dissents in favor of a hike, and the CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 79.6% probability of a December increase after Thursday’s inflation data (our GDP and PCE report; our Fed-day report). That is our reading of the sample, not a forecast, and it rests on eight observations.
The single-day version
A related question is what bitcoin does on the day of a large Nasdaq decline. Since September 2014 the Nasdaq has fallen 2.5% or more on 109 days. Bitcoin fell on 82 of them, with a mean same-day move of −3.0% and a median of −2.5%, and on the next day it rose 54 times in 109 with a mean of +0.4% and a median of −0.03%, which is to say no pattern. Friday’s −0.8% bitcoin move on a −2.86% Nasdaq day was milder than 72 of the 108 earlier cases, though it came in a candle that also contained the Binance hack, so we would not read it as strength. For the equivalent exercise on the Fed calendar see our day-after-the-Fed study, and for the earlier weekly version of today’s question see What does bitcoin do next after a 3% weekly Nasdaq drop?.
Video: Crypto Banter’s data-driven discussion of when the crypto market could turn, published 29 October 2026 (one analyst’s view, not a forecast we endorse).
Video: Verified Investing on bitcoin’s reaction to the Binance incident, published 30 October 2026.
How to use this
- Treat the +11.5% as a description of a small sample, not an expectation. A month of −5% or worse for the Nasdaq has been followed by gains in most but not all cases.
- Check the regime. If rates are rising and the Fed is surprising hawkishly, the 2018 and 2022 rows are the more relevant ones.
- Watch the idiosyncratic risks. This week bitcoin carries its own event risks: the Binance aftermath, Binance’s proof-of-reserves report (Field Guide #71), and US midterm elections on 3 November.
- Re-run the test next month. The method above is simple enough to update after the November close, and we will add October 2026’s outcome to the table then.
Sources: Yahoo Finance daily closes for ^IXIC and BTC-USD (our calculations); Yahoo Finance live market blog for the October 2026 Nasdaq performance; Crypto Briefing for the Nasdaq’s largest drop since June; CME FedWatch via our GDP and PCE report.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day or UTC hour) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:05 UTC on Saturday 31 October 2026; the 31 October candle is still open at that time, so any daily close quoted is the 30 October close (77,180.42) unless stated. Index, gold and monthly figures are Yahoo Finance daily closes (US cash-session closes for the Nasdaq Composite, Friday 30 October). Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Statistics: 145 monthly observations, 19 filtered months, permutation test with 20,000 random draws of 19 next-month returns (seed 1) for the mean comparison; it is a rough guide, not a formal model. Past performance does not predict future results.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.