The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday 29 October that US real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second, and beat the 3.2% consensus compiled by LSEG (BEA; Fox Business). The same morning, the Commerce Department’s September PCE report showed headline inflation of 3.6% year on year and core of 3.1%, both in line with expectations (Fox Business). Today’s Binance incident has overshadowed the data, but the data is what moved the Federal Reserve outlook, and it is the test of two Bitcoin Mastery guides published before it: Field Guide #65 on PCE and Field Guide #69 on the GDP advance estimate.
The GDP report
| Item (annual rate, advance estimate) | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 3.4% | 2.2% | BEA |
| Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | 4.9% | 4.6% | BEA |
| Consumer spending | 3.8% | similar pace | NAHB |
| Nonresidential fixed investment | 12.7% (equipment 20.9%) | n/a | NAHB |
| Residential investment | −3.3% | n/a | NAHB |
| Government spending | 5.3% | n/a | NAHB |
| PCE price index | 2.1% | 5.0% | BEA |
| Core PCE price index | 2.5% | 3.3% | BEA |
Exports fell and imports rose, a drag on the headline (NAHB; BEA). The next release is the second estimate on 25 November. For Guide #69 the preview figures were the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow at 3.3% (28 October), the New York Fed’s staff nowcast at 2.7% (23 October) and Babypips’ 3.1% consensus. The actual 3.4% was above all three and 0.2 points above the LSEG consensus Fox Business quotes. The guide’s takeaway, that the nowcasts disagreed by 0.6 points before the print, held up: the print landed near the top of the range.
The PCE report and Fed pricing
| September 2026 | Month on month | Year on year | August y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE | +0.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Core PCE | +0.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Goods prices | n/a | 3.9% | n/a |
| Services prices | n/a | 3.5% | n/a |
| Personal saving rate | 3.8% (August 4.0%) |
Source: Fox Business, citing LSEG expectations. CME FedWatch showed a 79.6% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December after the data, down from 84.2% the previous day and up from 73.3% a week earlier (Fox Business). The Fed had held at 3.75%–4% on 28 October with two dissents for a hike (our report), so a hike by December remains the market’s central case. Early Thursday trading saw the S&P 500 down more than 0.4%, the Dow more than 0.3% and the Nasdaq more than 1.4% (Fox Business).
Scoring Field Guide #65 on September’s report
| Check | What September showed | Clean? |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Headline vs core | Headline 3.6% (August 3.4%), core 3.1% (August 3.0%); both higher | Yes |
| 2. Monthly vs annual | Monthly +0.5% / +0.3%; annual rates rose in the same direction | Yes |
| 3. Revisions | Whether August was revised was not stated in our source | Unknown |
| 4. Method change | No new methodology note found in our sources | Unknown |
| 5. Consensus | Headline +0.5%/3.6% and core +0.3% matched CMC Markets and LSEG; Babypips’ +0.2% core would have been a miss | Partly — the source of the forecast decided “beat or miss” |
Score: 2 of 5 clean, 1 partly, 2 unresolved because the sources we could fetch did not cover revisions or method changes. In August the same scorecard gave 1 of 5, so the September report is easier to read at face value, mainly because the monthly and annual signals agreed. This is our own grading framework and not an official rating.
How bitcoin traded around the data
Coinbase hourly candles show bitcoin did not fall on the data. The 12:00 UTC hour (which contains the 12:30 UTC release) opened at $80,057.41 and closed at $79,947.60; the next four hours closed at $80,188.50, $81,090.06, $81,698.54 and $81,173.03, with a high of $81,890.00 in the 16:00 UTC hour, 2.4% above the 12:00 hour’s close. That was while the Nasdaq was down more than 1.4% early in the US session (Fox Business), so on the day bitcoin and the Nasdaq diverged, which our earlier correlation study says is not the typical pattern lately. Bitcoin then fell in the 20:00 UTC hour, opening at $80,743.29 and touching $78,177.37, the same hour as the first Binance wallet transfers; the cause of that move cannot be read from the price alone. The UTC day closed at $77,780.33.
What to carry forward
- Revisions to August PCE and to Q2 GDP: check the BEA release page when the second estimate arrives on 25 November.
- The December Fed pricing: 79.6% on Thursday; the next large inputs are the October jobs and CPI reports.
- Our day-after-the-Fed study (here) and the Binance study (here) should both be updated as the data arrives.
- Strategy’s third-quarter results were due after the close on 29 October; we could not retrieve them and do not report them here.
Sources: BEA GDP advance estimate, third quarter 2026; NAHB Eye on Housing; Fox Business. The consensus figures are LSEG as quoted by Fox Business.
Method: bitcoin and ether prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC hour or UTC day) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:05 UTC on Friday 30 October 2026; the 30 October candle is still open at that time, so any daily close quoted is the 29 October close (77,780.33) unless stated. Third-party figures are attributed to their source; incident details were still changing at pull time. The GDP nowcast figures (GDPNow 3.3%, NY Fed 2.7%, Babypips 3.1%) are those quoted in Field Guide #69 and were not rechecked today.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.