Washington’s central bank told markets on Wednesday afternoon that its next move is probably another rate increase. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s 15–16 September meeting, published at 2 p.m. ET on 7 October 2026, say that “most” participants judged another hike would likely be appropriate by year-end, after the committee raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on a 12–0 vote (Federal Reserve minutes). Bitcoin closed the day at $83,275, down 2.65% from Tuesday’s $85,540 on Coinbase — and by 06:20 UTC on Thursday it was trading near $82,870.
The obvious headline is “Fed minutes sink bitcoin”. The hourly candles say otherwise, and that is the most useful fact in today’s tape.
What the minutes actually say
- Direction: most participants assessed that another increase would likely be appropriate by the end of the year, with decisions depending on incoming data (Fed minutes, 15–16 Sep).
- Insurance logic: many favoured a higher rate path on risk-management grounds, as protection against persistently high inflation; a number said a higher path was needed in their baseline outlooks; several described the current policy rate as “not restrictive or only mildly restrictive”.
- Inflation: staff estimated total PCE inflation at 3.8% and core at 3.4% for August (3.6% and 3.2% under the new BEA methodology), and participants judged the risks as skewed to the upside.
- Economy: the labour market was described as close to maximum employment and activity as expanding at a solid pace, supported by AI-related business investment.
- Pricing before the release: InvestingLive reported that markets assigned about a 19% chance to a hike at the next move and were fully priced for December (InvestingLive, 7 Oct), so the minutes confirmed a path traders already held rather than introducing a new one.
The hourly tape: bitcoin fell first, the Fed came second
The Fed publishes minutes at 2 p.m. ET, which was 18:00 UTC on 7 October. Coinbase’s hourly candles (Coinbase Exchange) show where bitcoin was at each point:
| Time (UTC) | Event | BTC open | BTC close of the hour |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 on 7 Oct | Daily candle opens | $85,540 | — |
| 08:00 | Europe at work, hours before any U.S. data | $84,100 | $83,924 |
| 13:00 | Hourly low of the day: $82,717 | $83,464 | $83,140 |
| 17:00 (1 p.m. ET) | 10-year auction results | $83,345 | $83,098 |
| 18:00 (2 p.m. ET) | Minutes published | $83,098 | $83,373 |
| 23:00 | Last hour of the 7 Oct candle | $83,188 | $83,275 |
In other words, bitcoin had already given up about 2.9% from Tuesday’s close by the time the minutes appeared and then rose 0.33% in the hour of publication. The day’s low of $82,717 came at 13:00 UTC, five hours earlier. It slid further overnight: the 04:00 UTC candle on Thursday printed $82,161, the lowest of the 8 October session so far. The crypto press has tied the move to the minutes; CryptoTimes, which published at 7:54 p.m. UTC, itself noted that its market data “doesn’t establish” that the minutes caused the decline (CryptoTimes). This desk reads the evidence the same way: the minutes are consistent with a market that was already nervous, not the trigger.
A strong 10-year auction, and yields still near multi-decade highs
Treasury sold a $39 billion reopening of the 10-year note at 1 p.m. ET. According to TFTC’s auction table the high yield was 5.300%, the bid-to-cover ratio 2.77 (up 0.23 from the previous 10-year auction), indirect bidders took 80.3%, direct bidders 17.1% and primary dealers just 2.5% — and the site graded demand “Strong” (TFTC Treasury auctions). The Treasury’s own par yield curve closed the day at 5.28% for the 10-year (5.27% Tuesday), 5.67% for the 30-year and 4.77% for the 2-year (U.S. Treasury). This desk explains how to read those auction numbers in Field Guide #52.
Equities took the yields badly but not violently. TheStreet’s close data for 7 October: Dow 51,179.87 (−0.66%), S&P 500 7,801.77 (−0.22%) and Nasdaq 27,538.69 (−0.22%), with the 10-year at 5.29% in the afternoon, a 52-week high, after reaching about 5.35% earlier in the session, which TheStreet describes as the highest since 2002 (TheStreet). It also cited oil higher on Middle East tensions, including Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and a Gulf storm; Brent was about $102 in early trading. Analyst Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com told TheStreet that the bond market is the main constraint and “keeps valuation pressure elevated”.
Video: Yahoo Finance, published 1 October 2026 — a pre-minutes discussion of rising yields and bitcoin. Its views are the presenter’s own.
The rest of the crypto tape
CryptoTimes reported ether at about $2,564 (−4.7% over 24 hours), XRP −5.4%, Solana −3.9% and Dogecoin −6.6%, with total crypto market capitalisation near $2.92 trillion (−3.0%). Coinglass data cited in the same article showed roughly $46.1 million of liquidations in a four-hour window, $36.4 million of them long positions — a small figure by this year’s standards, which argues against a forced-liquidation cascade. Bitcoin spot ETFs took in $118.9 million on Tuesday 6 October, led by BlackRock’s IBIT (+$122.0 million), according to TFTC; Wednesday’s figure had not been posted when this was written.
What to watch next
- 14 October: the next U.S. consumer-price report. With the Fed saying inflation risks are to the upside, an upside surprise would strengthen the December-hike case.
- 29 October: the next FOMC decision; the minutes say another increase is more likely by year-end than not.
- Price levels: Wednesday’s close of $83,275 is the lowest daily close since 20 September ($81,160); this desk’s moving-average update put the 50-day average near $80,300 and the 100/200-day cross at about $72,000.
Earlier this week the story was a weak jobs report and collapsing hike odds that failed to lift bitcoin; today it is a hawkish Fed that did not seem to push it down either. Both point the same way: for now, bitcoin’s day-to-day price is moving on something other than the Fed calendar. See also this desk’s preview of Wednesday’s minutes and auction.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD candles (UTC day or UTC hour) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 06:20 UTC on Thursday 8 October 2026; the 8 October candle is still open at that time, so any closing figure quoted is the 7 October close unless stated. Treasury yields are the U.S. Treasury’s own daily par yield curve (constant-maturity) series. Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Hourly timing assumes the minutes were released at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC); InvestingLive’s article is stamped 18:01 UTC.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.