Yesterday this desk’s Field Guide #50 said bitcoin’s 100-day moving average would cross its 200-day at Tuesday’s close unless the price fell hard. It did not fall hard. On Coinbase’s daily candles, the 100-day average ended 6 October at $71,785 and the 200-day at $71,656 — a gap of $129 in favour of the shorter average, after a $56 deficit on 5 October (Coinbase Exchange candles). By 06:15 UTC on 7 October, with the day’s candle still open, the gap was about $294. The bitcoin price itself, meanwhile, was near $84,300, about 32% below its 6 October 2025 closing peak of $124,720.
A cross of this type is usually called a “golden cross”, though the label more often refers to the 50-day crossing the 200-day. Because both versions are circulating in the market, this update reports both.
The two crosses, by this desk’s calculation
| Average pair | Crossed above on | Bitcoin close that day | Gap at the latest reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-day over 200-day | 8 September 2026 | $78,447 | 50-day $79,905 vs 200-day $71,656 on 6 Oct (+$8,249) |
| 100-day over 200-day | 6 October 2026 | $85,540 | 100-day $71,785 vs 200-day $71,656 on 6 Oct (+$129) |
The 200-day average has risen only about $654 over the last ten sessions, while the 100-day has climbed about $2,294 — the cross is happening because the shorter average is rising faster, not because the long-term trend has been strong for months. The lowest daily close in the last 280 days was $58,524 on 30 June 2026; the long averages still carry that weakness inside them.
What happened after bitcoin’s previous 100/200 crosses
The following table uses the same Coinbase daily closes from 21 April 2024, the start of the series this desk pulled. Because a 200-day average needs 200 sessions of history, the first possible cross in the data is November 2024. That leaves only four prior crosses — two golden, two death — which is a very small sample.
| Date | Type | Close | +7 days | +30 days | +60 days | +90 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2024 | Golden | $87,340 | +12.7% | +16.1% | +8.2% | +12.0% |
| 4 May 2025 | Death | $94,273 | +10.5% | +11.9% | +16.3% | +19.4% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | Golden | $106,141 | −0.4% | +11.5% | +8.7% | +6.2% |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Death | $86,808 | +4.1% | +0.7% | +3.1% | −21.7% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | Golden | $85,540 | pending | pending | pending | pending |
The pattern does not separate the two kinds of cross. Bitcoin rose 30 days after both golden crosses (+16.1% and +11.5%), but it also rose 30 days after the first death cross (+11.9%) and was flat after the second (+0.7%). The 90-day figures run from +6.2% to −21.7%. With four observations and overlapping bull and bear regimes in each, nothing here is statistically meaningful, and this desk does not read the cross as a signal to buy or sell. The only honest summary is that moving-average crosses describe the past: they confirm that the recent average price has been higher than the older average price.
For the 50/200 version, the same data shows crosses on 7 April 2025 (death, close $79,140, +22.6% over the next 30 days), 22 May 2025 (golden, $111,723, −8.6%), 16 November 2025 (death, $94,184, −6.7%) and 8 September 2026 (golden, $78,447). Bitcoin closed 6 October about 9.0% above that last cross close. Again, the sample is four.
The video above is analyst Benjamin Cowen’s 8 September video titled “Bitcoin Golden Cross”, the same date as the 50/200 cross in the table. Another channel, More Crypto Online, asked the question directly on 9 September, as the embed below shows. These are third-party views; this desk has not adopted either’s conclusions.
What the market did on the first day
On the first partial session after the cross, bitcoin fell. The Coinbase candle for 7 October shows a low of $83,551 and a price near $84,270 at 06:15 UTC, down about 1.5% from Tuesday’s $85,540 close. That is a partial candle and could change by the end of the UTC day. A one-day move says nothing about the cross itself; it is more consistent with the macro calendar — Fed minutes at 2 p.m. ET and a roughly $39 billion 10-year auction today — which this desk previews in today’s analysis.
What would make the cross more or less meaningful
- Whether the 100-day stays above the 200-day. The gap is only $129–$294. A quick return below would mean the cross was noise, as sometimes happens when two averages are close together.
- The slope of the 200-day average. A cross carries more weight when the longer average is also rising, as it has been, albeit slowly, for the last ten sessions.
- Price versus both averages. Bitcoin is about $12,500–$13,800 above both lines, so the nearest tests of the averages are far below the current range.
- The $84,000 and $87,000 levels that have defined the recent range, since a daily close outside it will count for more than the cross itself.
The longer-term context is in this desk’s one-year analysis of bitcoin’s peak: prices remain well below the 2025 high even as the Nasdaq sets records. A technical cross inside a market 31% off its peak is a small piece of information, not a verdict.
Source and method: Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily candles. All averages and returns are this desk’s own calculations from daily closes.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily candles (UTC day) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 06:15 UTC on Wednesday 7 October 2026; the 7 October candle is still open at that time, so any closing figure quoted is the 6 October close unless stated. Treasury yields are the U.S. Treasury’s own daily par yield curve (constant-maturity) series. Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Moving averages are simple averages of Coinbase daily closes and will differ slightly on other venues.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.