The U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September, less than a third of the roughly 90,000 economists had forecast, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday 2 October. In the three sessions since, the market has priced out most of an October Federal Reserve rate hike, the Nasdaq has closed at a record — and bitcoin has pushed to $86,996 on Coinbase (Monday 5 October), about $400 short of the $87,397 high it set on 21 September, without once closing above that day’s $86,595 close.
The part of the story that does not fit the headline is the bond market. According to the Treasury’s own daily yield curve, the 10-year yield closed Monday at 5.31%, higher than it closed on the day of the jobs miss (5.28%) and 31 basis points above where it stood on 15 September, the day before the Fed raised rates. A weak jobs number has taken the pressure off the next Fed meeting. It has not, so far, taken it off the long end of the curve.
What the September jobs report actually said
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, against a prior 12-month average of 45,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% with 7.1 million people out of work, per the BLS Employment Situation release. The revisions made the headline worse: July was cut by 31,000 to a loss of 10,000 jobs, and August was cut by 29,000 to +133,000 from +162,000 — 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported across the two months. The 162,000 figure for August is the one this desk covered on 5 September, when a payroll number three times the consensus pushed Fed hike odds above 50%.
The detail was thin. Health care added 17,000 jobs, well under its 12-month average of 33,000; construction added 11,000, manufacturing 9,000, and financial activities lost 7,000. The BLS summary says employment in all major industries “changed little” over the month. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month to $37.81 and 3.0% over twelve months. For a Fed that has just begun raising rates, a 3.0% annual wage rate gives hawks less to point at than the payroll count gives doves — that is this desk’s reading, not a Fed statement. For a method for reading the report yourself, see our guide to the jobs report.
How far the Fed odds moved
On 5 October the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed an 80.6% probability that the Fed holds rates at its next meeting and a 19.4% chance of a 25-basis-point increase, as reported by Yahoo Finance. One week earlier the same tool showed 29.1% for a hold and 70.9% for a hike. That is a swing of roughly 51 percentage points in seven days. A second source, StockTwits’ market wrap for Friday, put the chance of an unchanged October decision at 82% after the report.
The context is that the Fed already moved. On 16 September the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first increase since 2023 (Federal Reserve statement). In his press conference Chair Warsh described the move as “removing accommodation” and said “our predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate,” according to MUFG’s recap, whose analysts expected the Committee to skip October and move again in December. BlackRock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg called Friday’s data “dovish” and “a little softer across the board,” adding that December remains “squarely in the mix” (as quoted by StockTwits). The next decision is due on 29 October; the minutes of the September meeting arrive on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, and one preview, from Continuum Economics (28 September), expects them to read hawkish. Our walkthrough of how to read the FOMC minutes covers what to look for.
The bond market did not follow
The table below uses the Treasury’s official par yield curve, which is struck from end-of-day bid-side quotes, rather than the intraday figures that circulate in headlines. By that measure the 2-year yield fell 10 basis points on Thursday 1 October, the day before the jobs report, and rose 5 basis points on the day of the report itself.
| Treasury close (CMT) | 2-year | 10-year | 30-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 15 Sep (day before the hike) | 4.67% | 5.00% | 5.36% |
| Wed 30 Sep | 4.88% | 5.29% | 5.64% |
| Thu 1 Oct | 4.78% | 5.24% | 5.61% |
| Fri 2 Oct (jobs report) | 4.83% | 5.28% | 5.63% |
| Mon 5 Oct | 4.84% | 5.31% | 5.66% |
Source: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve, 15 September to 5 October 2026. Intraday headlines were lower: StockTwits reported the 10-year at 5.176% on Friday and CoinDesk reported it down 2 basis points at 5.25% on Monday morning, both below the closes in the table. That gap between a headline print and the official close is exactly what our Treasury-yield field guide is about.
The 2-year yield at 4.84% sits 124 basis points above the 3.60% at which it closed a year ago, on 6 October 2025, when bitcoin set its all-time high; the 10-year is 113 basis points above its 4.18% of that day. We take that comparison further in today’s companion analysis of bitcoin one year after its peak.
Bitcoin: the second rally in a week to stall
CoinDesk’s Shaurya Malwa described Monday’s move as “the second rally in a week to stall” below $87,400 (CoinDesk, 5 October): last Wednesday bitcoin jumped to $85,500 after softer inflation data and reversed within hours. Coinbase’s daily candles show the same shape. Friday’s candle ran from $83,850 to $87,249 and closed at $84,505, a $2,744 retreat from the high. Bitcoin closed Sunday at $86,507, traded between $84,944 and $86,996 on Monday and closed at $85,749, down 0.9% on the day. At the time of writing, 06:10 UTC on Tuesday, it was trading near $85,260 on OKX and $85,284 on Coinbase.
The levels traders are using are consistent across sources. Ted Pillows’ Monday report (Substack, 5 October) lists resistance at $86,700, $87,570 and $89,768 and support at $85,000, $83,700 and $82,500, with bitcoin boxed between $83,700 and $87,570. His stance is “neutral, slight upward lean” pending a daily close above $87,570 or one below $83,700. This desk would add one observation of its own: the highest daily close in the 21 September rally was $86,595, and 21 September’s intraday high of $87,397 was the highest since 29 January.
Flows have cooled but not reversed. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $102.7 million on 1 October and $189.8 million on 2 October, led by BlackRock’s IBIT ($195.6 million and $158.2 million); Fidelity’s FBTC lost $60.7 million on the 1st and gained $29.3 million on the 2nd (TFTC ETF flow tracker). Ted Pillows puts the past week’s inflows at $241.1 million, against roughly $2.4 billion the week before — his window differs from the tracker’s, so the two should not be added together. The previous week included the seven-session streak that began on 17 September.
Leverage is lower than it has been. Pillows reports roughly 628,000 BTC of futures open interest, which he describes as the lowest of 2026 and 20% below August, and $434 million of liquidations in 24 hours, 75% of them longs. OKX’s BTC-USDT perpetual funding rate has been close to zero: the last settled rate was −0.00015%, against +0.007% at the 00:00 UTC print on 5 October (OKX funding history). Near-zero funding means traders are not paying much to hold either side. A market with little leverage in it is slower to squeeze in either direction.
The video above is Bitcoin Magazine’s 5 October programme, covering bitcoin macro, Strategy’s outlook and a former Fed official’s view of bitcoin. The second, below, is VirtualBacon’s 30 September discussion of the inflation print that preceded the jobs report and whether the Fed is done hiking. Both are third-party commentary, not this desk’s views.
What to watch this week
- Wednesday 7 October, 2:00 p.m. ET — FOMC minutes of the 15–16 September meeting. CoinDesk’s week-ahead calendar lists the release for that time.
- Wednesday — $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction (per Ted Pillows). With the 10-year above 5.3%, demand at the auction is the cleanest read on whether the long end is stabilising.
- Thursday 8 October — weekly jobless claims, forecast at 195,000 (CoinDesk), a quick check on whether September’s weakness is spreading.
- Friday 9 October — University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary), forecast at 48.1.
- Wednesday 14 October — CPI, and Friday 16 October — monthly options expiry, then the 29 October Fed decision.
Bottom line: the September jobs report changed the odds for October, not the level of rates, and the 10-year yield is still trading at a higher level than at any close in the September series this desk has tracked. Bitcoin is about 2% below the level it has failed at twice. The next 24 hours include the minutes and a Treasury auction, and either could decide which side of $83,700–$87,570 the next daily close lands on.
Primary sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Treasury; Federal Reserve; Coinbase Exchange candles. Reporting: Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, CoinDesk week ahead.
Method: bitcoin prices, daily highs, lows and closes in this article are Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily candles (UTC day), pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 06:10 UTC on Tuesday 6 October 2026; the 6 October candle is still open at that time, so every close quoted is the 5 October close unless stated. Treasury yields are the U.S. Treasury’s own daily par yield curve (constant-maturity) series. Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date, and where two sources disagree both are printed. Moving averages are simple averages of Coinbase daily closes and will differ slightly on other venues.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.