A heavy calendar greets bitcoin as November begins. Americans vote in midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November, Apple and AMD report earnings, and the October jobs report lands on Friday 6 November, all while markets price roughly an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates in December (Tech-Insider, citing Reuters). Bitcoin starts the week at about $77,845 on Coinbase (07:03 UTC Sunday), having closed October at 77,423.98 after a month in which it fell 7.6% by Yahoo Finance’s measure. This update lays out the calendar, corrects the record on Friday’s ETF outflow, and says in advance what would count as a signal.
Friday’s ETF table is now final: −$643 million
In our Saturday update we cited a provisional Farside total because the table for BlackRock’s IBIT was not complete. CryptoSlate, citing Farside Investors, has now published the full day: a net outflow of $643 million on Friday 30 October (CryptoSlate). IBIT lost $234 million, Fidelity’s FBTC $201 million, ARK 21Shares’ ARKB $130 million, Grayscale’s GBTC $53 million and Bitwise’s BITB $26 million. Five of the 12 funds recorded outflows, seven reported zero, and none recorded an inflow. The week from 26 to 30 October was a net outflow of $202.4 million, because Friday erased the $440.8 million that had come in over the previous four sessions.
| Fund | Friday 30 Oct net flow |
|---|---|
| IBIT (BlackRock) | −$234M |
| FBTC (Fidelity) | −$201M |
| ARKB (ARK 21Shares) | −$130M |
| GBTC (Grayscale) | −$53M |
| BITB (Bitwise) | −$26M |
| All funds (Farside via CryptoSlate) | −$643M; week −$202.4M |
The per-fund figures add to $644 million, one more than the total, which is a rounding effect. This revision matters because the earlier provisional figure, −$409.5 million, excluded IBIT; the full-day number is about 57% larger. We will check Monday’s table the same way: a figure is provisional until every fund has reported.
The calendar
| Date (2026) | Event | Figure to know |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | Apple and Palantir report after the close | Apple’s guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter: revenue up 9%–11%, gross margin 47%–48% (TradingKey); revenue consensus about $113B (ChainCatcher/KuCoin) |
| Tue 3 Nov | US midterm elections; AMD after the close; Shopify and Pfizer before the open | All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats; AMD revenue consensus about $13B |
| Wed 4 Nov | Qualcomm and Arm after the close; Uber, McDonald’s, CVS and Novo Nordisk before | Close results in some races can take days |
| Thu 5 Nov | Cloudflare, Airbnb and Lumentum after the close | — |
| Fri 6 Nov, 8:30 a.m. ET | October nonfarm payrolls | Consensus about +65,000; September was +29,000 (ChainCatcher/KuCoin) |
| This week (dates not confirmed) | Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia rate decisions | — |
Dates and consensus numbers come from the sources linked; consensus estimates vary by provider and we could not confirm times for every release. Prediction markets give Democrats a 92% (Kalshi) to 94% (Polymarket) chance of winning the House and 69% on both for the Senate, as of 30 October (CryptoTicker, citing Oddschecker). We analyse how bitcoin behaved after past elections in today’s study: no reliable direction, but unusually wide swings.
The macro backdrop, with numbers
Friday’s close was risk-off across assets. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% to 25,437.00 and the S&P 500 lost 1.82% to 7,580.07, while the VIX rose from 17.20 to 19.42. Gold futures fell 3.3% to 3,898.9 (from 4,031.4), so it was not a flight to safety; the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.93% from 4.99%, and the dollar index closed at 101.88 (all Yahoo Finance, Friday 30 October). The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October with two dissents in favour of a 25-basis-point hike, so the October jobs figure matters: a number well above +65,000 would raise the odds of a December hike from about 80%, and a very weak one would complicate the case for it. Neither outcome has an established sign for bitcoin;; in our Fed-day coverage bitcoin slipped below $80,000 on the Fed hold.
Video: a midday market update on the $643 million ETF outflow and Binance’s coverage of the hack, published 31 October 2026.
Video: Crypto Casey on bitcoin’s November setup, published 31 October 2026. Her title poses a question; it is one analyst’s view, not a forecast we share.
What would count as a signal
We record these in advance so that we cannot move the goalposts later.
- ETFs: a second consecutive outflow day on Monday’s Farside table would mean the Binance and Nasdaq shock is carrying into flows; an inflow would suggest Friday was a one-day reaction. One day proves little, as Field Guide #63 explains.
- Binance: whether the phased reopening passes without a large net exchange outflow, and whether the reserves report expected on Monday appears (details in our Binance update).
- Price: bitcoin has held roughly 76,100–78,600 since Friday; we treat a Coinbase daily close below 76,141.02 (Friday’s low) or above 81,890 (Thursday’s high) as a break of that range.
- Jobs: the first move after 12:30 UTC on Friday and whether it reverses, as it did after the GDP and PCE data on 29 October.
Sources: CryptoSlate (Farside), ChainCatcher/KuCoin, TradingKey, Tech-Insider, CryptoTicker.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:05 UTC on Sunday 1 November 2026; the 1 November candle is still open at that time, so the “latest” price is the 07:03 UTC ticker (77,844.70) and the last completed daily close is 31 October (77,423.98). Index, gold, yield and long-history bitcoin figures are Yahoo Finance daily closes (US cash-session closes of Friday 30 October). Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. The December hike probability is the Reuters-reported figure as relayed by Tech-Insider on 30 October, not a live CME FedWatch reading.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.