Americans vote in the US midterm elections today, Tuesday 3 November, with a technology selloff in full swing: Yahoo Finance calculates that chip and memory stocks have lost about $3.5 trillion in market value since 6 October, and CoinDesk reports that a gauge of US chipmakers has now fallen 12% in three days (Yahoo Finance, 2 November; CoinDesk, 3 November). Oil dropped roughly 8% on Monday on hopes of a diplomatic end to the US-Iran war. Bitcoin, which gained nothing from either the oil relief or the election-eve calm, slipped about 2% overnight and was trading at $76,389.68 on Coinbase at 07:04 UTC, almost exactly on its 100-day moving average.
What Wall Street did on Monday
| Index (2 Nov 2026) | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 51,983.98 | +0.41% |
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | −0.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,164.32 | −1.07% |
Those closes are from TheStreet’s market wrap. The split between the Dow and the Nasdaq is the story: Yahoo Finance reports that about seven in ten S&P 500 stocks rose on Monday while nearly every chip stock fell, and that the chip group shed more than $300 billion in a single session. Intel, which fell almost 29% on 30 October after a weak forecast, was still sliding, and Yahoo puts its decline since 6 October at about 46%, a loss of roughly $276 billion. Nvidia is down about 15% over the same period, which in dollars is the largest loss of all, about $849 billion. AMD, which has lost about $289 billion by the same measure, reports quarterly results after the close today.
Apple reported after the bell on Monday and beat expectations: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.48 billion against $113.47 billion expected, and earnings of $2.10 a share against $2.00, with fiscal-year revenue of $479 billion (TheStreet). The stock was down about 1% after hours, and the coverage describes growth as decelerating. A good print did not stop the selloff in the broader technology complex.
Why oil is the mainstream hook
Brent crude fell $9.32, or 8.22%, to $104.10 a barrel and WTI fell $8.10, or 7.78%, to $96.02 as of 21:38 GMT on Monday, according to OilPrice.com prices cited by Gulf News (Gulf News, 2 November). The trigger was weekend mediation between Iran and Qatar and a draft proposal to end the war that reportedly centres on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts quoted by the same report called it “hope, not a deal”. For context, Brent had risen 13.6% in October alone, and some analysts warn it could reach $120 if tensions flare again after the election.
The mainstream reading is that falling oil eases inflation pressure and should help risk assets. Bitcoin’s reading so far is less friendly: on a day when oil fell about 8%, bitcoin fell about 2%. One day does not make a relationship, and we are not claiming one, but it is a reminder that bitcoin is currently trading on the equity and liquidity channel, not the energy channel.
Video: Schwab Network’s market report on the oil plunge and the Apple and Palantir earnings, published 2 November 2026.
Asia and the overnight tape
CoinDesk’s Tuesday morning wrap says South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 3%, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped almost 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 is down 10% from its peak, which it describes as a correction. The yuan’s 13-day winning streak, its longest since 1996, ended after the People’s Bank of China asked banks to hold more foreign currency in reserve. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday (CoinDesk).
Where bitcoin stands: a test of the 100-day line
| Coinbase UTC day | Open | High | Low | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 29 Oct | 81,249.32 | 81,890.00 | 77,699.00 | 77,780.33 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 77,782.75 | 78,634.80 | 76,141.02 | 77,180.42 |
| Sat 31 Oct | 77,180.42 | 77,645.12 | 76,954.57 | 77,423.98 |
| Sun 1 Nov | 77,423.98 | 78,298.82 | 77,370.00 | 78,230.55 |
| Mon 2 Nov | 78,232.49 | 78,762.30 | 76,553.00 | 76,674.13 |
| Tue 3 Nov (open candle, 07:04 UTC) | 76,674.12 | 77,185.99 | 76,238.54 | 76,389.68 (ticker) |
Bitcoin reversed from a Monday high of 78,762.30, a level just above the 78,000 resistance that CryptoTicker says held on Monday, and has now given back the weekend’s gains. CryptoTicker puts the 100-day simple moving average at about $76,540 (calculated from CoinGecko daily closes), notes that the intraday low of $76,498 briefly dipped under it for the first time since mid-August, and says the last daily close below the line was on 18 August (CryptoTicker, 3 November). By our own calculation from Yahoo Finance daily closes the line is at about 76,646; the two figures differ because of the data source, and both put price within a fraction of a percent of the line. Our companion study, What Does Bitcoin Do After It Closes Below Its 100-Day Average?, looks at what happened after the 22 previous crossings.
The wider levels, per CryptoTicker: the 20-day average near $80,530 and the 50-day near $81,930 were both lost at the end of October, the simple 200-day sits near $73,160, and the cycle high was about $86,600 on 21 September. Sentiment has deteriorated quickly: the Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index reads 26, down from 37 on Monday, 48 a week ago and 65 a month ago (Coingabbar, 3 November). CoinGecko data in the same report shows bitcoin at $77,178.96 at 01:30 UTC, down 2%, and ether at $2,259.53, down 1.5%. CoinDesk adds that BNB slipped below $700, HYPE fell 5% and ZEC fell almost 10%.
Election day: what the data does and does not say
The first results are expected as Asian markets open on Wednesday, according to CoinDesk. The historical record is thin: in our study of the 30 days after six US elections since 2014, returns ranged from −45.2% to +43.5%, and the three midterm years averaged −16.3%, but three observations cannot separate an election effect from the bitcoin cycle that happened to coincide with them. A separate Yahoo Finance calculation by Stock Trader’s Almanac editor Jeff Hirsch finds that chip stocks rose in all eight midterm cycles since 1994 when measured from the last October close to the following June, although in 2002 and 2018 they first fell about another 11%. That is a seasonality claim about a different asset, and a reminder that “after the election” can still include a deeper low first.
Video: a creator’s pre-election take on bitcoin and the midterms, published 2 November 2026. It is opinion, not data; treat the claims as the author’s.
What to watch today
- The UTC daily close. CryptoTicker’s own summary is that “at the 100-day line, the daily close decides.” Coinbase’s UTC day ends at 00:00 UTC on Wednesday.
- AMD’s results after the bell. With the chip group down 12% in three days, a miss or a weak forecast would extend the pattern Intel started on 30 October.
- Polls closing and first results overnight US time; CoinDesk expects the first results as Asian markets open.
- Binance. The exchange said it expects to restore more networks and assets on Tuesday and to publish another reserves snapshot on Wednesday; see our reserves and ETF update.
- Support and resistance: the 200-day area near $73,160 below, the $78,000 zone above.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, TheStreet, Gulf News, CryptoTicker, Coingabbar. Previously: our Monday midterms-week note and Binance reopens withdrawals.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day) and the Coinbase spot ticker pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:04 UTC on Tuesday 3 November 2026; the 3 November candle is still open at that time, so the latest price is the 76,389.68 ticker and the last completed daily close is Monday 2 November (76,674.13). Long-history bitcoin figures are Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily closes (UTC). Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Market-value losses for chip stocks are Yahoo Finance’s calculation from 6 October and are not independently verified here; equity and oil figures are as reported by the outlets named, at the times stated.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.