A week that combines one of the largest US companies reporting earnings, a national election and a monthly jobs report is rare. It opens with bitcoin at 78,106.83 on Coinbase (07:08 UTC, Monday 2 November), up about 1% on Friday’s close and 4.6% below Thursday’s high of 81,890. Reuters’ Wall Street week-ahead piece lists the calendar: Apple reports Monday, AMD, Qualcomm and Palantir report later in the week among more than 100 S&P 500 companies, voting is Tuesday, and the October employment report is due Friday (Reuters via Kitco, 30 October).
The puzzle: earnings are strong, and the market fell anyway
Reuters, citing LSEG IBES data, says that with about half the S&P 500 having reported third-quarter results, earnings were on pace to rise 31% from a year earlier. The Federal Reserve held rates steady this week and upgraded its view of the economy, and third-quarter GDP grew at its fastest pace in a year. And yet Alphabet fell more than 12% on Thursday and Caterpillar dropped 9%. On Friday the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86% to 25,437.00, its biggest one-day drop since June, as we reported in our Saturday market note. The S&P 500 was still up about 1% for October and more than 12% for the year, per Reuters.
How can both be true? Earnings growth measures what companies earned over the last quarter; prices reflect what investors expect for the next several years. In the cases we have documented this week, the sell-offs followed forward-looking disappointments: Intel’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $15–16 billion against $17.1 billion expected, and Amazon’s cash burn, with capital spending plans that the market read as expensive. That is a plausible reading, not a proven one, and the Reuters piece frames the market as “AI-wary”. For bitcoin the practical lesson is that a strong earnings season does not guarantee a calm tape, which is relevant because bitcoin has been trading with equities in this sell-off: it fell 7.6% over the month against 5.3% for the Nasdaq, per the figures in that note.
Video: a preview of Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter report, published 1 November 2026. It is an independent creator’s view; the title describes the report as the first under CEO John Ternus, which we have not verified independently.
Bitcoin’s week so far
| Coinbase UTC day | Open | High | Low | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct | 80,799.50 | 81,715.01 | 80,270.68 | 81,249.31 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 81,249.32 | 81,890.00 | 77,699.00 | 77,780.33 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 77,782.75 | 78,634.80 | 76,141.02 | 77,180.42 |
| Sat 31 Oct | 77,180.42 | 77,645.12 | 76,954.57 | 77,423.98 |
| Sun 1 Nov | 77,423.98 | 78,298.82 | 77,370.00 | 78,230.55 |
| Mon 2 Nov (open, 07:08 UTC) | 78,232.49 | 78,762.30 | 77,906.03 | 78,057.34 |
The structure is simple. Since Thursday, bitcoin has made a lower low (76,141.02 on Friday) and then three consecutive higher daily lows (76,954.57, 77,370.00 and 77,906.03), while the highs have sat between 77,645 and 78,763. That is a narrowing range after a 7.0% drop from Thursday’s high to Friday’s low (our arithmetic). The levels worth noting are the ones the market has already tested: 76,141 below and 81,890 above. A move through either would be news; a drift between them is what the last four sessions look like.
The week’s calendar
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | Apple earnings; Farside ETF table for Monday after the US close | Largest US stock; a read on consumer demand and capital spending |
| Tue 3 Nov | US midterm elections | Democrats widely predicted to win the House; Senate less certain (Reuters) |
| This week | AMD, Qualcomm, Palantir and others report (dates per company calendars; Reuters lists them for the week) | More forward guidance from AI-linked firms |
| Fri 6 Nov | October jobs report | Feeds the rate-path debate that has driven bitcoin |
We do not yet have Monday’s spot bitcoin ETF flow data, which is published after the US close; Friday’s figures, an outflow of about $643 million, are in our ETF update. We will update with the Monday table when it appears. Our week-ahead note has the fuller list, and our midterm study shows why election-day price moves have been hard to predict.
Video: an options trader’s breakdown of expected moves around this week’s big technology earnings, published 1 November 2026. Expected moves are derived from option prices, not forecasts.
What to watch
- Apple’s guidance and capital spending. The market has punished forward-looking disappointment this week; a cautious guide could extend the pattern into Tuesday.
- The Nasdaq’s 25,437.00 Friday close. Whether it holds or breaks shows whether Friday was a one-day reset.
- Bitcoin’s 76,141 low and 81,890 high. A close outside the range would end the four-day consolidation.
- Binance. Withdrawals resumed on Sunday, per AFP; see our Monday report for what is still unanswered.
Sources: Reuters via Kitco, 30 October 2026; Coinbase Exchange candles; previously published Bitcoin Mastery notes linked above.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day) and the Coinbase spot ticker pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:08 UTC on Monday 2 November 2026; the 2 November candle is still open at that time, so the latest price is the 78,106.83 ticker and the last completed daily close is Sunday 1 November (78,230.55). Long-history bitcoin figures are Yahoo Finance BTC-USD monthly closes. Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Nasdaq, S&P 500 and monthly-change figures are repeated from Bitcoin Mastery’s 31 October note (Yahoo Finance closes of Friday 30 October); we did not refresh them this morning because US markets have not opened.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.