Markers Tuesday: Strategy's Fourth Sale in Four Weeks Is Now Policy — Q1 Graded, Riot Redeemed, and a $298M Flow Sprint Before CPI

Every week we publish falsifiable markers and grade them in public. Today the biggest one lands: Q1 asked whether Strategy's August 10 8-K would show a fourth consecutive weekly bitcoin sale — turning what began as a one-off into policy. It did. Alongside it we grade Q2 (the $65K close that still won't print), Q3 (Riot's rescheduled call), and update R2's flow arithmetic on the eve of Wednesday's CPI. Data as of Tuesday, August 11, 2026, roughly 07:00 UTC.

Q1 — GRADED: the fourth sale makes it policy

Strategy's Monday 8-K disclosed the sale of 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million between August 3 and August 9, at an average price of $64,262, per The Block. Every dollar of proceeds went to repurchasing 1,152,020 shares of its STRC preferred stock. Holdings now stand at 840,447 BTC against an average cost basis of $75,385 — meaning the company sold this batch roughly 15% below its aggregate cost. The USD reserve sits at $4.65 billion.

That is four consecutive weekly sales (32 BTC in May as precedent, then 1,638 BTC, then this week's 1,690), all in service of defending STRC's price. Q1's hypothesis — that a fourth sale would confirm 'sell bitcoin to repair the preferred' as standing policy rather than exception — is confirmed. Grade: fired, thesis PASS. One loose end also closes: the 1,030 BTC transfer Lookonchain flagged on August 5, which we carried as 'unconfirmed as sale,' falls squarely inside the August 3–9 disposal window. The hidden-seller file on that item is resolved.

The uncomfortable framing stands: the largest corporate bitcoin treasury is currently a structural weekly seller of roughly 1,600–1,700 BTC, at a realized loss to basis, to support a 12%-yielding preferred. Until an 8-K shows either a resumed purchase or a stabilized STRC that needs no buybacks, treasury-demand bulls are arguing against the filings.

Q2 — still no $65K close; Q3 — resolved, spectacularly

Q2 asked for the first August daily close above $65,000. Monday came closest yet — a $65,317 intraday tag — before the Strategy disclosure and CPI positioning dragged BTC back to roughly $63,970 by early Tuesday, down 1.6% on the day. Eleven days into August, the level remains unclosed. Q2 stays live through Friday, but the marker is failing.

Q3 asked simply whether Riot would set (and hold) its rescheduled earnings date by Wednesday. It reported Monday evening — and the reason for the delay turned out to be a 20-year, ~$9.1 billion AI data center lease that Bloomberg reports is with Anthropic. RIOT rose about 24% after hours. Grade: PASS, and the 'why the delay?' suspicion we printed last week has its answer: the call was waiting on a signature, not hiding bad news. We take the miss on our more cynical readings.

R2 — the flow math gets tight

R2, as defined Friday, banks the $101.7 million from Thursday's print (August 7: IBIT +$86.7M carrying 85% of the day, FBTC +$41.0M, against BTCO −$19.4M and HODL −$10.6M) and requires a further $298.3 million combined from Monday and Tuesday to clear the $400 million bar. As of press time, Farside's table had not yet posted Monday's number — the tracker still showed August 7 as its latest row. That leaves R2 unresolvable this morning, and honesty requires saying so rather than guessing. What we can say: a −1.6% tape into a CPI print is not the classic setup for a $150M/day pace, but the early-August cluster ($170.1M, $211.5M, $244.4M, $137.6M, $101.7M across five consecutive green days) shows the bid has been persistent even on soft days. IBIT has carried the load almost alone; the marker fails or passes largely on BlackRock's ticket flow. R2 settles Wednesday morning; we grade it as defined, no goalpost-moving.

Three CPI scenarios, three marker cascades

Because Wednesday's print arbitrates several open markers at once, it is worth writing down the branches in advance — that is the point of doing this publicly. Cool print (headline at or below 3.3% y/y): September-pause odds extend beyond the current ~56%, the hike tail priced by July's three dissenters compresses further, and the path of least resistance for BTC is a retest of $65K — giving Q2 its best window of the month. R1 leg one grades pass. In-line print (3.4%): the market keeps its uneasy equilibrium; R1 passes on the letter of its definition, but the burden shifts to Thursday's PPI and Friday's retail sales, and Q2 likely needs an independent flow catalyst. Hot print (3.5%+ or core above 2.6%): the asymmetry fires — hike chatter returns, the dollar bids, and the fourth-red-August pattern gets its macro justification. In that branch, watch whether Strategy's now-weekly supply and any R2 flow failure compound the move; the level to watch below is the $63,000 area where bitcoin based in early August before last week's bounce.

The CPI setup: what's priced

Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus picture, per Morningstar and the widely-circulated calendar summaries:

US #Economic Calendar | August 12, 2026 🔹 CPI — July: Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.2% MoM, following a 0.4% decline previously. On a YoY basis, CPI is expected at 3.4%, easing from 3.5%. 🔹 Core CPI — July: Core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% MoM, after being flat…

— Markets Today (@marketsday) August 9, 2026

CNBC notes prediction-market traders lean below consensus — under 55% odds that year-over-year CPI exceeds 3.3%. Kiplinger's preview pegs the monthly gains a tenth lower (+0.1% headline and core), with gasoline's 2–3% July decline doing the work even as Iran-war energy effects churn beneath the surface. Remember the asymmetry we defined in Sunday's markers: with three FOMC dissenters already on record favoring a hike, a hot print moves rate expectations more than a cool print does. September pause odds sit near 56%.

The tape into the print: S&P 500 slipped 0.06% Monday to 7,753.11 off Friday's record, the Dow fell 61 points to 53,975.98, and the Nasdaq eased 0.32% to 26,605.36, while Japan's Nikkei ripped 2.1% to 66,970. Brent held $84.42 as Iran's foreign minister said there are currently no direct talks with Washington on reopening the Strait of Hormuz — keeping R3's $90 trigger distant but alive.

How the pieces fit

Our editorial spine says macro drives, flows transmit, and treasuries condition supply. This week all three lanes are visible at once: the macro lane waits on one number Wednesday; the flow lane needs a $298.3M two-day sprint to keep R2 alive; and the treasury lane just confirmed that the biggest holder is a programmatic seller. Meanwhile the equity market is paying bitcoin-adjacent companies for their electricity, not their coins — Riot's after-hours repricing happened while BTC fell. That divergence — miner equities as AI-infrastructure calls, bitcoin as a macro asset — is becoming the defining trade of August 2026.

For context on how Strategy's selling was read when it first turned, this July analysis from Simply Bitcoin captures the initial disbelief phase — worth revisiting now that the exception has hardened into policy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyh6B7jhOuM

Wednesday's run will grade R1 leg one and settle R2, with Thursday's PPI and Friday's retail sales completing the macro triptych. If CPI prints cool and the ETFs print green, Q2 gets its best shot of the month at that $65K close. If not, the fourth red August in a row keeps building — and the marker board will say so in plain terms either way.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and carry significant risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.