The market’s favourite midterm statistic is that bitcoin was higher a year after every US midterm election since 2010 — CryptoQuant puts the gain at a median 63% across four cases, as quoted by Bitcoin.com this morning. We re-ran the test on the three midterms that Yahoo Finance’s BTC-USD history covers (4 November 2014, 6 November 2018 and 8 November 2022) and the pattern holds: +24.5%, +44.9% and +92.3% over the following 365 days. The catch is the base rate. Across 4,066 daily start dates since September 2014, 71.4% of the next-365-day windows ended higher, and the median window gained 70.7%, so a three-for-three record is what chance delivers about 37% of the time, and the median midterm result (+44.9%) sits below the median window.
The test: bitcoin from midterm election day, 2014–2022
We took bitcoin’s UTC daily close on each midterm election day from Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and measured the return over 1, 7, 30, 90, 180 and 365 calendar days. All figures are percent changes in the dollar price; none is a forecast.
| Election day | Close ($) | Below prior high | +1d | +7d | +30d | +90d | +180d | +365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2014 | 330.49 | −27.7% | +2.7 | +11.3 | +11.8 | −27.9 | −27.3 | +24.5 |
| 6 Nov 2018 | 6,461.01 | −66.9% | +1.1 | −1.6 | −45.5 | −46.5 | −10.3 | +44.9 |
| 8 Nov 2022 | 18,541.27 | −72.6% | −14.3 | −8.9 | −7.1 | +22.8 | +53.5 | +92.3 |
Own calculation, Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily closes (UTC). “Below prior high” is the election-day close versus the highest daily close up to that date. The week of the 2022 election coincided with the FTX collapse (from memory; not re-verified here).
The one-year result is uniform, but the path was not. In the 12 months after 4 November 2014 bitcoin traded as low as $178 and as high as $424, so a holder who bought on election day sat on a loss of up to 46% before the year ended in profit. After 6 November 2018 the price fell to $3,237, a 50% drawdown from the election-day close, before reaching $13,016. After 8 November 2022 it dipped to $15,787, about 15% below the election-day close, before ending the year near $35,655. Every one of the three “wins” required sitting through a decline of at least 15% first, and in 2014 and 2018 the drawdown reached roughly half of the election-day price.
The base rate: how often is any 365-day window up?
Start from the same data set and ask the question without reference to elections. For every start date from September 2014 with a full year of subsequent data, 71.4% of 365-day returns were positive, the median was +70.7% and the mean +141.2%, dragged up by the early years. For shorter horizons the hit rate is lower: 56.7% of 30-day windows were up (median +2.7%), 58.8% of 90-day windows (median +8.3%) and 64.5% of 180-day windows (median +26.8%).
| Horizon | Windows | Share up | Median return | Midterm cases up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 4,401 | 56.7% | +2.7% | 1 of 3 |
| 90 days | 4,341 | 58.8% | +8.3% | 1 of 3 |
| 180 days | 4,251 | 64.5% | +26.8% | 1 of 3 |
| 365 days | 4,066 | 71.4% | +70.7% | 3 of 3 |
Own calculation on overlapping daily windows; the windows are not independent, so the counts overstate the information in them.
The shorter horizons tell a less comfortable story: only one of the three midterms was higher after 30 days, one after 90 days and one after 180 days, against base rates of 57%, 59% and 65%. With three observations that is a description, not a finding.
Because the base rate for a one-year hold is already about 71%, three wins from three tries is not strong evidence. We simulated 200,000 draws of three random start dates and found all three up in 36.6% of draws. The sample is also too short for statistical significance in either direction.
Video: a discussion of what a Democratic Congress could mean for bitcoin and altcoins, published 1 November 2026.
Why “after a midterm” may be a proxy for something else
CryptoQuant itself warns that the pattern overlaps with the halving cycle, as Bitcoin.com reports. The 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms each fell roughly two years after the previous halving and near the trough of the post-peak decline, which is when 12-month forward returns have historically been highest. The test that isolates the election effect from the cycle effect is whether returns after midterms exceed returns from other dates at a similar point in the cycle, and with three observations that cannot be tested. A related control is the depth of the drawdown at the start.
The three elections began from drawdowns of 27.7%, 66.9% and 72.6% below the prior high; bitcoin today is about 38.5% below its highest daily close ($124,753 on Yahoo Finance’s data), a level between the first and the second. For start dates since 2014 at which bitcoin was 20% to 50% below its prior high, 62.0% of the following 365-day windows were up (1,207 windows; median +70.5%, mean +124.2%). Narrowing the band to 25% to 45% below the prior high leaves 655 windows with 54.7% up, a median of +42.2% and a mean of +86.3%. Those conditional rates are lower than the headline 71.4%, and they are conditional on the single fact that we choose to condition on; more than one variable differs today.
And other November starts?
Taking every 4 November from 2014 through 2025 (twelve start dates, again overlapping with the cycle) gives +25%, +67%, +949%, −14%, +48%, +48%, +335%, −66%, +66%, +96%, +50% and −23% over the next 365 days: nine of twelve positive, 75% (the last start, 4 November 2025, is measured to today’s partial price). Three of the twelve would have been losses, including the −66% from 4 November 2021, one year before the 2022 midterm. A November start is not special; the sample just happens to include several of the best years in bitcoin’s history.
What the 2026 election night adds
This year’s midterm is still being counted: NBC News projected overnight that Democrats will control both chambers, according to crypto.news. Bitcoin’s day-one reaction so far is small compared with 2022: from a Tuesday close of $77,336.75 to $77,801.29 at 07:05 UTC, a gain of 0.60%, after an overnight low of $75,600.64 (see today’s news report). Our earlier study of the 30 days after elections, six elections since 2014, found a mean of +7.8% and a median of +11.2% but a wide dispersion; we will add the 2026 row at the +7 and +30 day marks, on 10 November and 3 December.
How to use the result
- Treat three observations as a story, not a signal. A 71% base rate means a one-year hold has been favourable in most windows regardless of the calendar.
- Look at the path. Each of the three “wins” included a drawdown of at least 15%, and 2018’s reached 50%, so the headline return says little about what an investor would have lived through.
- Check the controls. Cycle position, the starting drawdown and macro conditions differ across the three cases and today. The cases range from 28% to 73% below the prior high.
- Revisit after the data arrives. The 7-day, 30-day and 90-day marks for 2026 land on 10 November, 3 December and 2 February.
See also our study of November after a down October, of bitcoin one year after its $126,296 peak and of closes below the 100-day average.
Video: CNBC on crypto-industry political spending in the 2026 midterms, published 1 November 2026.
Sources: Bitcoin.com (CryptoQuant figures), crypto.news, Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily history (own calculations), CoinDesk.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC) and the Coinbase spot ticker pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 07:05 UTC on Wednesday 4 November 2026; the 4 November candle is still open at that time, so the latest price is the 77,801.29 ticker and the last completed daily close is Tuesday 3 November (77,336.75). Long-history bitcoin figures are Yahoo Finance BTC-USD daily closes (UTC). Third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. Election dates and the FTX reference are from memory and were not re-verified; the CryptoQuant claim is quoted, not reproduced, because Yahoo’s history does not cover 2010. Overlapping windows, three events and a cycle confound; read the results as description.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.