Bitcoin Mining Squeeze: Hash Price at $28/PH/s as 20% of Fleet Goes Unprofitable

The squeeze, in one number

Hash price — the dollar revenue a miner earns per unit of computing power per day — slipped to $28-$30 per petahash per second per day by early March 2026, the lowest reading since the April 2024 halving cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Industry analysts cited by Spark estimate this level pushes roughly 15-20% of the global hash fleet into unprofitable territory at current energy prices.

For miners running older-generation ASICs (anything in the 30+ J/TH efficiency range) or paying above-market electricity, the calculation is now binary: either the BTC price moves materially higher, or the rig comes offline.

Hashrate keeps rising anyway

The counterintuitive part of the post-halving environment is that hashrate keeps climbing despite squeezed margins. Bitcoin's network hashrate surpassed 800 EH/s in early 2026 and briefly tagged 1 ZH/s (zettahash per second) for the first time in network history, per data tracked by KuCoin. New-generation ASICs in the 15-20 J/TH efficiency band, combined with falling per-unit prices on the secondary market, mean that well-capitalised operators continue to expand even when marginal miners switch off.

This produces a self-correcting dynamic: as inefficient hashrate goes offline, difficulty adjusts downward, and the remaining miners earn a higher share of fixed-supply block rewards. The February 19, 2026 difficulty adjustment was a record-breaker in the opposite direction — a +14.73% spike to 144.4 trillion, the largest absolute increase in network history, immediately following severe US winter storms that had forced Texas miners offline. That gives a sense of how quickly capacity shifts at the margin.

The Texas episode

The February 2026 grid event is the most informative recent stress test of mining economics. Severe winter storms across Texas, where roughly a quarter of US hash capacity is located, forced miners to shut down rigs under demand-response agreements with grid operators. The aggregate effect was the largest hashrate drawdown since China's 2021 mining ban, roughly 12% below November 2025 peaks.

What followed was instructive. Within weeks, hashrate not only recovered but reached a new all-time high, and difficulty re-adjusted to absorb the returning capacity. The episode demonstrated two things: first, that miners participating in demand-response can monetise grid services that partially offset hash price compression; second, that the network's security budget is structurally resilient even to large regional shocks.

What it means for price

There is a long-running debate about whether miner profitability acts as a price floor or a ceiling for Bitcoin. The honest answer is "neither directly", but miner economics do influence supply dynamics in measurable ways.

When hash price is low and miners are squeezed, they tend to liquidate Bitcoin treasury holdings to cover operating costs. That adds sell pressure independent of investor sentiment. Public miners with weak balance sheets are the most exposed; analysts at Yellow.com flagged increased treasury BTC sales by public miners during Q1 2026.

When hash price recovers, miners tend to hold production, reducing organic sell flow and tightening the spot float. Combined with ongoing ETF inflows, that creates a supportive structural setup. The current $77,000-area BTC price keeps marginal miners just on the edge — neither comfortable nor catastrophic.

The next halving is still two years away

For perspective, the next Bitcoin halving (block 1,050,000) is not expected until around 2028 and will reduce the block subsidy from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. That gives the current generation of miners roughly two years to absorb the 2024 cut before the next supply shock arrives.

In practical terms, the industry is in a consolidation phase. Operators with sub-3 cent per kWh power, modern ASIC fleets, and access to capital are expanding capacity. Operators relying on grid-rate power or older equipment are either exiting or being acquired. The trend toward integration with energy infrastructure — flared gas capture, demand-response participation, off-grid solar and nuclear partnerships — is accelerating because it is the only path to durable margins at current hash prices.

## What to watch Three indicators matter most for the rest of 2026. First, the trajectory of hash price. A recovery above $45/PH/s would put most modern fleets back into healthy margin territory. Second, the next two difficulty adjustments. Continued upward prints signal that capacity is still expanding faster than the marginal miner is capitulating. Third, public miner Q2 earnings, which will reveal which operators are surviving the squeeze and which are being forced into restructuring or sale. For the protocol itself, none of this changes anything. The network is producing blocks on schedule, security is at all-time highs, and the issuance schedule continues to operate exactly as written in 2009. ## FAQ **Q1: What is hash price and why does it matter?** Hash price is the daily revenue a miner earns per unit of computing power, typically quoted in dollars per petahash per second per day. It combines BTC price, block reward, transaction fees, and network difficulty into a single profitability metric. Below approximately $35/PH/s, older or higher-cost mining operations begin losing money. **Q2: When is the next Bitcoin halving?** The next halving (block 1,050,000) is expected around 2028 and will reduce the block subsidy from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024. **Q3: Why is hashrate rising even though miners are losing money?** Modern ASICs in the 15-20 J/TH efficiency range continue to be deployed by well-capitalised operators with cheap power, while inefficient rigs go offline. The aggregate effect is that capacity grows even as marginal miners capitulate. The network self-corrects via the difficulty adjustment. **Q4: Are miners selling their Bitcoin treasury?** Some public miners with weak balance sheets did increase BTC treasury sales during the Q1 2026 hash price compression to cover operating costs. Well-capitalised miners with healthy balance sheets generally continue to hold production. **Q5: What happened to Texas miners in February 2026?** Severe winter storms forced Texas miners to shut down rigs under demand-response agreements, causing the largest network hashrate drawdown since the 2021 China ban (approximately 12%). The network recovered to new all-time highs within weeks, and difficulty spiked +14.73% on February 19 — the largest absolute increase in history. --- *Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Bitcoin mining involves significant capital expenditure, ongoing operating costs and regulatory risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision.*