On the eve of the year's most loaded Fed decision, the scoreboard that matters most to Bitcoin's price is a flow table — and its newest cell is still blank. The seven-day, roughly $1 billion inflow streak into US spot Bitcoin ETFs is officially over, snapped by a two-day cluster of −$465.2 million last Thursday and Friday, per CoinDesk and Decrypt. Bloomberg framed Monday the same way: the streak's end has become the market's pre-Fed narrative, per Bloomberg.
The settled ledger, as of press time
| Session (Farside, settled) | Net flow (US$m) | IBIT (US$m) |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jul 22 | +69.1 | +38.8 |
| Thu, Jul 23 | −225.1 | −202.5 |
| Fri, Jul 24 | −240.1 | −212.2 (largest since launch) |
| Mon, Jul 27 | unsettled at press time | unsettled |
BlackRock's IBIT drove essentially the whole cluster — just under $415 million of the two-day total, including Friday's −$212.2 million, its largest single-day outflow since the fund launched in January 2024. Fidelity's FBTC added −$27.9 million Friday. Per the reporting-lag rule we established after several stale-data near-misses: Farside's latest cell settles late in the US evening, so Monday's session — the number that grades our F1 marker — is reported here as unsettled rather than guessed.
Marker grades: F1 pending, G2 pending
Friday's update set F1: does Monday's cell extend the outflow cluster to three sessions, or does a +$100M-plus print break it? With the cell unsettled at press time, F1 carries to tomorrow's coverage — no grade is more honest than a guessed one. Same for G2 (does IBIT attract a pre-decision inflow day before the FOMC?): that question now resolves across Monday and Tuesday's cells together. What we can grade: the clustering thesis from Saturday's streak-end update — that ETF outflows arrive in multi-day bunches around macro events, not as isolated cells — has held through every session since.
The bigger pattern: three positive weeks, each half the last
| Week ending (2026) | Net flow (US$m) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 10 | +197.4 | 1st positive week |
| Jul 17 | +75.7 | 2nd positive, −62% w/w |
| Jul 24 | +33.8 | 3rd positive, −55% w/w; volume $8.05B = weakest since Oct 2024 |
The weekly series is still technically positive — a third straight net-inflow week at +$33.8 million — but the decay is doing the talking: each week's haul has been roughly half the prior one, and last week's $8.05 billion of volume was the weakest full week since October 2024, a thin-book condition we unpacked in Sunday's analysis. July remains on track to be the first positive flow month since April, while year-to-date BTC ETF flows are still roughly −$5 billion. The rotation backdrop persists too: Ethereum ETFs pulled in +$103.9 million in the same week — about three times the Bitcoin complex's haul on a fraction of the asset base.
Why this cluster is different from July 13's
This is the second outflow cluster of the month, and the two are not alike. The July 13 episode — a single −$424.7 million session — was a shock print inside an otherwise recovering tape, absorbed within days as the streak resumed. The current cluster is smaller per session but structurally heavier: it lands on decaying weekly inflows, the weakest volume backdrop since October 2024, and a macro calendar that gives sidelined capital every excuse to stay sidelined until Thursday. Outflows into strength get bought; outflows into an information vacuum tend to compound. That asymmetry — not the headline dollar figures — is why this week's cells matter more than their size suggests. It is also why the ETH comparison stings: the rotation is happening precisely when the Bitcoin complex most needs its passive bid, with Ethereum funds running a third straight positive week on roughly one-eighth the asset base.
What Wednesday decides
Flows and the Fed are now the same trade. A hold with balanced language would test whether the streak-era buyers return — watch for a +$100M IBIT-led print Thursday as confirmation. A 25bp hike into books this thin would likely extend the outflow cluster and put Friday's −$240.1 million session at risk of looking small; the July 13 precedent (−$424.7 million in one session) marks the downside reference. Either way, Thursday morning's June core PCE lands before US ETF desks open — meaning the two biggest flow catalysts of the month hit within 18 hours of each other. We will grade F1, G2 and the Fed-week volume marker F2 as the cells settle.
One housekeeping note on method: every figure in the tables above is a settled Farside cell, and every unsettled cell is labelled as such. Twice this month, early flow headlines built on provisional data have had to be walked back — including a pre-retarget difficulty projection that missed by an order of magnitude. The ledger is only useful if the cells in it are final, so that is the standard this series will keep.
As of publication on July 28, 2026: BTC ~$63,200, Fear & Greed 29 (Fear), FOMC decision roughly 26 hours away, June core PCE roughly 44 hours away.
Investment disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and you can lose money. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.