Wall Street’s record run finally wobbled on Wednesday — and Bitcoin’s quiet bid kept building anyway. The Dow rose 263.24 points, or 0.49%, to a fifth consecutive record close, but the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to snap a four-day winning streak and the Nasdaq dropped 0.83% to 26,363, per TheStreet and CNBC. The day’s casualty was the market’s newest mega-listing: SpaceX closed at $108.27, down 13.61%, after earnings that beat on revenue but spooked investors with rising capital spending and widening losses, on volume 72% above its three-month average, per The Motley Fool.

Bitcoin, which sat out the record parade all week, did not sit out the wobble — because it barely moves at all. As of early Thursday, August 6, 2026, BTC trades at $64,579.64 per Fortune’s tracker (12:47 a.m. EDT print; a second feed shows $64,808, +0.82% over 24 hours — we cite both when trackers diverge). Sentiment remains stuck in fear territory: CoinMarketCap’s gauge reads 39 (“Fear”) Thursday against 37 the day before — while the classic alternative.me tracker printed 27 on Wednesday, a divergence we flagged yesterday and which persists. But under the flat tape, the flow story has turned: the spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted back-to-back nine-figure inflow days.

The bid is back: +$170M, then +$211M

Farside Investors’ table now shows the August 4 cell settled at +$211.5 million — the best day since July 30 — on top of Monday’s settled +$170.1 million. BlackRock’s IBIT took $170.3 million of Tuesday’s total, with Fidelity’s FBTC adding $19.6 million, ARKB $9.2 million, BITB $8.7 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT $3.7 million — five issuers in the green, against seven on Monday. Two sessions, +$381.6 million — after a week that opened with a $265.4 million single-day bleed. The breadth-then-magnitude sequence matters: Monday was broad and modest, Tuesday narrower and bigger, which is the classic shape of institutional allocations resuming rather than a one-off rebalance. Whether Wednesday’s still-unsettled cell extends the streak is precisely what our N1 marker measures — today’s markers analysis runs the arithmetic.

The gap, day three — with a new wrinkle

We wrote yesterday that the gap between record equities and a flat Bitcoin is the story of the week, and Wednesday added a wrinkle worth being precise about: the Fed repricing has reversed. September hike odds, which collapsed to 55.9% at Monday’s close on the oil slide, have rebounded to roughly 61.4–61.9% on CME FedWatch as of the August 4 close, per KuCoin’s flash tracker — a six-point hawkish snap-back in two sessions, with no major data release in between. Half of Monday’s “largest dovish repricing of the cycle” has already been taken back. If the pattern of this cycle holds — the barrel, not the spreadsheet, drives the pricing — the next legs are tomorrow’s July payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET and the September crude contract, which sat near $75.08 WTI on Wednesday, per Yahoo Finance.

Hormuz: the deal that would finish the oil story

The de-escalation that broke the oil premium last week is edging toward paper. The United States, Iran and Oman are “close” to an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per Al Jazeera’s August 5 report — a deal that would restore the June 17 ceasefire, reopen the waterway that carried a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil in peacetime, and create space for broader talks. The unresolved core is scope: Washington wants Iran’s missile program and regional proxies on the table; National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani says Tehran will negotiate only the nuclear file. For Bitcoin readers the transmission is the one we mapped in the oil guide: a signed Hormuz deal is a supply headline, a lower barrel, and another leg of drainage from the inflation-expectations channel that has been pricing the September hike.

Also on the tape

  • Strategy sold Bitcoin. The company behind the corporate-treasury playbook disclosed the sale of 1,638 BTC for roughly $104.7 million — sold at an average of $63,957 against a $75,419 cost basis. Today’s analysis takes it apart.
  • Miner earnings week opened crooked: Riot postponed its Q2 call, and MARA reports tonight at 5:00 p.m. ET — full update and a new reading guide.
  • Friday, August 7, 8:30 a.m. ET: July nonfarm payrolls — finals day for our K1, K2, L2 and N2 markers.
  • ~Sunday, August 9: BIP-110’s mandatory signaling window opens at block 961,632 — the mechanics.
  • Wednesday, August 12: July CPI, the finals for our O2, M1 and M2 markers.

FAQ

Why did Bitcoin ETF inflows return this week?

Flows follow price with a lag, and the macro backdrop improved sharply: oil broke below $85, September hike odds fell from ~81%, and equities set records. Farside data shows +$170.1M on Aug 3 and +$211.5M on Aug 4 — the first back-to-back nine-figure days since late July.

Why is Bitcoin stuck near $64,000 while stocks set records?

The structural bid is thinner than it was: Strategy has stopped buying (and just sold), August seasonality is negative, and sentiment gauges sit in fear. Our gap guide covers the mechanisms that could close the divergence in either direction.

What happened to SpaceX stock?

SpaceX fell 13.61% to $108.27 on August 5 after earnings that beat on revenue but showed rising capital spending and widening losses — a reminder that record indexes are riding a narrow set of winners.

What is the next macro catalyst?

July payrolls on Friday, August 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET, then CPI on August 12. September hike odds sit near 61.9% after rebounding six points from Monday’s 55.9% low.

What would a Hormuz deal mean for crypto?

Lower oil, softer inflation expectations, and less pressure for a September hike — a macro tailwind. Whether it translates into Bitcoin upside depends on the flow bid the ETF complex is only now rebuilding.

Investment disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are volatile assets; you can lose some or all of your capital. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.