US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $82.4 million on Friday 16 October 2026, according to Farside Investors, after a small inflow of $5.1 million on Thursday. BlackRock’s IBIT lost $71.8 million and Fidelity’s FBTC lost $10.6 million; no other fund reported a flow on Friday. Bitcoin closed the day at $81,500 on Coinbase, down 0.77%, and traded near $81,497 at 06:15 UTC on Saturday. Our market report covers the stock-market selloff behind the move; this update covers the fund flows.
Thursday’s $5.1 million total was IBIT +$16.8 million, offset by BTCO (Invesco Galaxy) −$4.1 million and Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin Trust (BTC) −$7.6 million, per Farside. TFTC, which tracks the same data, shows the same $5.1 million (TFTC October 2026 table).
The daily table
| Date (2026) | IBIT | FBTC | Total (US$ million) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct | +195.6 | −60.7 | +102.7 |
| 2 Oct | +158.2 | +29.3 | +189.8 |
| 5 Oct | +69.9 | −74.5 | −89.9 |
| 6 Oct | +122.0 | 0.0 | +118.9 |
| 7 Oct | −207.7 | −105.1 | −487.1 |
| 8 Oct | −5.5 | −197.1 | −244.1 |
| 9 Oct | +22.4 | −3.6 | +21.1 |
| 12 Oct | −65.4 | 0.0 | −65.4 |
| 13 Oct | +65.9 | +103.1 | +175.6 |
| 14 Oct | −110.9 | −152.7 | −261.5 |
| 15 Oct | +16.8 | 0.0 | +5.1 |
| 16 Oct | −71.8 | −10.6 | −82.4 |
Dates 1 to 15 October are from the TFTC table; 16 October is from Farside, because TFTC had not yet posted it when we checked. “Total” includes all funds, not only IBIT and FBTC, which is why rows do not add across; for example the 7 October total is −$487.1 million in TFTC’s table and −$484.9 million in Farside’s. Figures are in US dollars, in millions, by trading date, and the sources say they may contain errors.
October so far: about −$615 million
Adding Friday’s outflow to TFTC’s month-to-date total through 15 October (−$534.8 million) gives about −$617.2 million after 12 trading days; our earlier Farside-based tally, −$537 million through 14 October (15 October update), plus Thursday and Friday, gives −$614.3 million. The two trackers differ by about $3 million, so we round to about −$615 million. By fund, on the TFTC basis: IBIT is +$189.5 million (+$261.3 million through Thursday, less Friday’s $71.8 million), FBTC −$471.9 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC −$78.9 million. Six of the 12 trading days have been inflow days and six outflow days, with a daily average of about −$51 million (our arithmetic).
Friday’s outflow was the fifth-largest of the month’s six outflow days. The largest remain 7 October (−$487.1 million), 14 October (−$261.5 million) and 8 October (−$244.1 million).
Three weeks, three different stories
| Period (2026) | ETF net flow (US$ million) | Bitcoin, Friday-to-Friday close |
|---|---|---|
| 1–2 Oct (2 days) | +292.5 | — |
| 5–9 Oct | −681.1 | −1.9% ($84,505 → $82,911) |
| 12–16 Oct | −228.6 | −1.7% ($82,911 → $81,500) |
The weekly arithmetic is ours, from the TFTC and Farside daily figures above. The first two days of the month brought in $292.5 million; the next two weeks together took out $909.7 million. Bitcoin’s price fell about the same amount in each of those two weeks (1.9% and 1.7%), while flows were three times larger in the first of them, so there is no tight one-to-one link between weekly flows and weekly price in this small sample.
IBIT and the share price
IBIT’s shares closed at $46.15 on Friday on Yahoo Finance data, down 0.9% from $46.59 on Thursday, a slightly bigger fall than bitcoin’s 0.77%. IBIT is the only large fund still positive for the month, but its lead has narrowed from +$261.3 million to +$189.5 million in one day. Fidelity’s FBTC has taken most of the month’s selling. Without it, the other funds combined would be down about $145 million in October (our arithmetic: −617.2 + 471.9), a much smaller figure than the headline.
The bitcoin-treasury overlay
Friday also brought a second source of pressure on bitcoin-related equities. MSCI confirmed on 15 October that it will make “non-operating companies” ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes from the close of 30 November (Decrypt, 16 October 2026). Strategy’s shares closed at $136.83, down 9.6% from $151.29 on Yahoo Finance data. Those are shares of a company, not spot bitcoin ETFs, and index-fund selling of MSTR is not the same as ETF selling of bitcoin; we explain the difference and give five checks in Field Guide #60. We have no evidence that the MSCI news affected Friday’s ETF flows, and the daily tables cannot show it.
What the “Uptober” story looks like in flows
October is meant to be bitcoin’s strong month, and in our analysis today we found it has held up in the second half of the month in 10 of the past 12 years. This year, the first half has ended with bitcoin down 2.46% and the ETFs net sellers, which is the weak-start pattern in that analysis. Whether the second half repeats history is open, and 15 days remain.
What to watch next
Monday’s figures will be published after the US close on 19 October. Three questions matter. Does IBIT keep its positive monthly total? Does Fidelity’s FBTC continue to sell, or does it return to the buying it showed on 13 October (+$103.1 million)? And do outflows grow if the stock-market selloff continues? Big-tech earnings are scheduled for the coming week according to Yahoo Finance as summarised by Vista Partners, the Fed meets on 27–28 October, and the PCE inflation report is due on 29 October.
Method: bitcoin prices, highs, lows and closes are Coinbase Exchange candles (UTC day or UTC hour) pulled by Bitcoin Mastery at about 06:15 UTC on Saturday 17 October 2026; the 17 October candle is still open at that time, so any closing figure quoted is the 16 October close unless stated. US index, ETF, stock and Brent closes are Yahoo Finance daily data or the Associated Press figures cited; other third-party figures are attributed to their source and date. ETF flow figures are from TFTC’s October 2026 table (1–15 October) and Farside Investors (16 October, read at about 06:15 UTC on 17 October); weekly and month-to-date totals are our arithmetic and the two trackers differ by a few million dollars. IBIT and MSTR closes are Yahoo Finance daily data.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and you can lose some or all of the money you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any exchange-traded fund, any listed security or any other asset, and the technical levels, probabilities and scenarios discussed are descriptions of published data, not forecasts. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.