Bitcoin just faced its most consequential fork attempt since 2017 — and the network's verdict took less than 48 hours. The minority chain created by BIP-110's mandatory signaling phase remains frozen at two blocks as of Sunday's last verifiable snapshot, while the dominant chain has kept producing blocks at its normal pace, none of them signaling for the proposal. Bitcoin itself barely blinked: BTC trades at $65,161 as of 06:10 UTC Monday, August 10, up 0.6% over 24 hours, with the week's main macro event — July CPI — still two days away.

Two blocks, then silence

BIP-110's mandatory signaling window opened at block 961,632 on Saturday, August 8. Nodes enforcing the proposal — a one-year soft fork restricting arbitrary data in transactions — began rejecting any block that does not signal support on version bit 4. Because the overwhelming majority of hashpower is not signaling, enforcing nodes split onto their own branch: mining operation Roughnecks produced alternative blocks 961,632 and 961,633 using OCEAN's DATUM system, at Bitcoin's full 127.48-trillion difficulty, per crypto.news. Then production stopped. OCEAN's BIP-110 endpoint showed no new block for roughly 17 hours, with displayed hashpower around 257 PH/s — about 0.03% of the network's roughly 900 EH/s. By Sunday 15:27 UTC the branch was 111 blocks behind.

Our own block-by-block count confirms the picture on the dominant chain: through block 961,840 at 06:10 UTC Monday — 209 blocks into the 2,016-block mandatory window — exactly zero blocks have signaled bit 4 (mempool.space data, checked block by block). The previous difficulty period closed with 51 signaling blocks out of 2,016, or 2.53%. If the enforcing branch has not advanced past 961,633, its deficit now exceeds 200 blocks.

Saylor calls it decisive — with a caveat

Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor, who along with Blockstream co-founder Adam Back had warned that enforcing BIP-110 without broad support would divide the network, declared the outcome settled on Sunday:

Two caveats belong next to that quote. The 99.85% figure is Saylor's own estimate, not a protocol measurement. And the branch has not technically ceased to exist — miners can still direct hashpower at it. But the difficulty math is brutal: the enforcing chain inherited the same 127.48T target as the main chain, and Saylor separately estimated that at ~0.15% of network hashpower it would take on the order of 25 years to reach its first difficulty adjustment. Unless meaningful hashrate migrates, the branch stays frozen in practice.

What holders should actually do: mind replay risk

While both chains exist, coins held before the split are duplicated on both histories, and BIP-110 includes no built-in replay protection. Bitcoin developer Kevin Loaec warned that attempting to sell coins on the minority fork without first separating balances could expose the corresponding BTC on the dominant chain: a transaction signed on one branch can be copied and rebroadcast on the other. Users who simply leave pre-split coins untouched create no replayable transaction. With the minority chain frozen and no exchange infrastructure assigning it value, doing nothing remains the lowest-risk position.

For a miner's-eye view of why the economics never favored the fork, this recent discussion is worth the time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeXmvsegbSY

The market shrugged — into a heavy macro week

Bitcoin's 24-hour range ran from $64,754 to $65,363 (CoinGecko), leaving the question of an August daily close above $65,000 — still unachieved this month — open going into Monday's US session. Spot ETF flows closed last week positive: Farside's settled cell for Friday, August 7 shows +$101.7 million, extending the streak that absorbed roughly $853 million over five sessions, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $86.7 million of Friday's total.

The backdrop: the S&P 500 enters the week at a record 7,757.64 after its best five-day run since April (CNBC), July CPI lands Wednesday 8:30 a.m. ET with PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday, and Brent crude rose about 1% to $84.42 Monday as traders weighed mixed signals on the Iran–Oman framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC). Strategy's weekly 8-K is also expected today — the first since it disclosed selling 1,638 BTC.

What happens next

Mandatory signaling runs through block 963,647. On the dominant chain, BIP-110 is designed to enter LOCKED_IN at block 963,648 — which, in a quirk of the calendar, is also the next difficulty retarget block, currently projected around August 22–23 with an early-window estimate of +3.06% (mempool.space, as of August 10). Activation of the reduced-data rules would follow one period later at block 965,664 — on whichever chain gets there. For the enforcing branch, stuck at 961,633, those heights are a quarter-century away at current hashpower. As of this morning, the network has voted with its blocks: 209 to zero.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and carry significant risk, including the possible loss of principal. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.