Bitcoin Holds $64.7K as Iran Calls Hormuz Framework “Finalized” — and BIP-110’s Mandatory Window Opens to Zero Signals

Iran said this weekend that the framework of an agreement with Oman to reopen commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been finalized, according to ABC News live coverage — the closest the strait has come to a negotiated reopening since it was sealed in March. The caveat arrived within a day: Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Saturday the strait “will never fully reopen” until the United States “corrects its behavior.” Oil traders split the difference. Brent settled below $82 on Friday, per Trading Economics, after Thursday’s 3.8% spike to $82.49 on Iran’s restrictive draft plan — which would ban US and Israeli ships outright and impose penalties of 20% of cargo value on violators, per CNBC.

Bitcoin, as usual on a summer Sunday, is doing less than the headlines around it. BTC traded at $64,764 as of 06:10 UTC on August 9, down 0.3% over 24 hours (CoinGecko), still below the $65,000 level it tagged after Friday’s jobs-report shock and still without a single August daily close above $65K. Ether sat at $1,914. For why the strait matters to crypto portfolios at all, see our data guide: is Bitcoin a geopolitical hedge?

The deal that reopens the strait — mostly

The framework under discussion, as reported through the week, routes inbound tanker traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters, with maritime service fees paid to both countries through a newly established corporation. That is a reopening with a toll booth — and, if Zolghadr’s Saturday statement holds, a toll booth with a blacklist, since Tehran’s draft would keep US and Israeli vessels excluded and demand compensation from “hostile” states before their ships transit. For energy markets the difference between that and a clean reopening is measured in dollars of risk premium: Brent spent March near $100 when the strait first closed and spent Friday below $82 on reopening optimism. For Bitcoin the transmission is indirect but real — an oil re-spike into Wednesday’s CPI print is the one near-term path back to a hawkish Fed, which is why our oil marker stays armed into the week even as the diplomacy improves.

The macro backdrop Bitcoin failed to keep pace with last week bears repeating: the S&P 500 closed Friday at a record 7,757.64, capping its best week since April (+3.6%), while the Nasdaq gained 5.2% on the week as yields fell across the curve. Equities read the jobs shock as rate relief; Bitcoin read it as a reason to tag $65,300 for an hour and give it back. That divergence — risk assets at records, BTC 48% below its October 2025 all-time high — remains the defining chart of this market, and we’ve written a guide to reading it.

BIP-110’s mandatory window is now live — and the first 58 blocks all voted no

The other story of the weekend happened on-chain. Bitcoin reached block 961,632 overnight, opening BIP-110’s mandatory signaling window — the 2,016-block stretch (through 963,647) in which nodes enforcing the data-limiting soft fork treat non-signaling blocks as invalid. We previewed the setup yesterday: roughly 2.5% of blocks signaled in the run-up, against a 55% activation bar.

The early returns are starker than the preview. As of block 961,689 on Sunday morning — 58 blocks into the window — exactly zero blocks have carried the bit-4 signal, per mempool.space block data. Not low. Zero. Meanwhile the checklist items we said we’d watch are all quiet: no orphaned blocks or reorgs reported, recommended fees sit at 1 sat/vB across every tier (no panic bidding into “clean” blocks), and network hashrate is steady near 904 EH/s. The chain-split scenario needs disruption; so far the network is producing the most boring possible data. If you’re new to how signaling works, our explainer is here: how to read soft-fork signaling.

The Bitcoin Infinity Show ran a live activation-watch stream with Bitcoin Mechanic and other guests as the window opened — worth it for the flavor of how contested this proposal remains even as the hashrate vote lands near-unanimous the other way.

ETFs enter CPI week with a five-day, $853M tailwind

Friday’s spot Bitcoin ETF session settled at roughly +$99 million of net inflows — tracker figures range from $98.85M to $101.7M pending Farside’s final cells — stretching the streak to five straight days and roughly $853.5 million for the week, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking $693 million, about 81%. That is the strongest weekly bid since June — and it still couldn’t buy a $65K close. The full flow table lives at Farside Investors; our reading guide is here.

The week ahead runs through one number

After July’s negative jobs print pushed September pause odds to roughly 56%, Wednesday’s CPI is the event the entire rates complex — and by extension the Bitcoin bid — is waiting on, per CNBC. We lay out exactly what we’re watching, with pre-committed markers, in today’s companion analysis.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and you can lose money. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.